[Masters degree assignment written March 2021]
Introduction:
The 1987 Montreal Protocol (MP) on substances that deplete the ozone layer is a legally binding international treaty implemented to phase out the production and consumption of substances that deplete ozone in the atmosphere. It built upon the framework designed by the 1985 Vienna convention for the protection of the ozone layer which developed the basis for international cooperation in preventing ozone depletion. The Vienna agreement and MP were signed in March 1985 and August 1987 respectively, both of which have made history as being the first universally ratified treaties by all United Nation (UN) states (UNEP,2021).
Context:
In 1971 a statement was made in the United States of America congress that ozone loss could be linked to increased skin cancer from increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure (McDonald,1971). This increased biologically harmful UV radiation exposure to humans was later confirmed as a threat of increasing skin cancer incidence (van der leun,1988;Nolan and Amanatidis,1995).
It was later discovered that halocarbons, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), caused destruction of atmospheric ozone (Molina and Rowland,1974) which informed scientific advice to protect ozone (Greenstone,1977). The first observations that described a loss of ozone in the Antarctic were made in 1984 (Farman, Gardiner and Shanklin,1985). These findings were confirmed from satellite data presented in 1985 (Bhartia, Heath and Flieg,1985).
The interventions taken to rectify this issue as enforced by the MP included replacing the use of such substances with much lower ozone depleting potentials (ODP). However, substitutes were later discovered to have very high global warming potentials (GWP) which accelerate climate change. Attempts to phase them out are addressed by the MP Kigali amendment (KA) (UNEP,2019) to include phasing out substances with high GWPs.
Interventions:
The MP’s roots can be argued to have invoked the precautionary principle (PP), albeit applied somewhat imperfectly, as the motivation to galvanise behaviour change (Farman,2001). The PP imposes upon humanity a duty of planetary care to wilfully inform and guide our global actions (Read & O’Riordan,2017). It directly calls into question the moral accountability of decisions that must be made collectively (Fernandez,2020). A central tenet of the PP is stated in article 15 of the Rio Declaration of environmental development, that a lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to protect the environment (United Nations,1992). Another inherent key principle therein is of prevention being better than cure. Table 1 gives more details of the PP’s approach to policymaking.
Table 1: Features of the precautionary principle as described from varying sources
| Chapman,2012: Take action where there is a clear lack of evidence Don’t disregard evidence, open to different types than often the narrow view taken by risk assessment Consider the weight of evidence from different sources of which none may individually be conclusive Take into account the pros and cons of action and inaction |
| Farman,2001: The principle of prevention is better than cure Using the technology for increasing efficiency of resource use and preventing waste Safeguarding environmental zones by protection from alteration in the face of ignorance or uncertainty Sharing the burden of responsibility according to contribution and ability to pay Share regulatory activities between political and private bodies using accredited NGO’s to make the call for interventions Ensure the preservation of conditions on earth for future generations and ecosystems Make the polluter pay |
| Rio Declaration,1992: Article 15 “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by states according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation” |
As an unanimously ratified treaty by all UN states, the MP acts at the public policy level which dictates protocols to be adhered to at the organizational level. The MP has had many amendments, the most recent being the KA of 2016 which places more stringent restrictions on the types of chemicals to be permissibly used. This latest amendment has been ratified by over 100 UN members with the notable exception of the United States of America (USA) (UNEP,2020). This status is due to be rectified as the recent announcement that the current USA president Joe Biden will ratify the treaty in his first one hundred days of office (The Whitehouse,2021). As outlined by the most recent edition of the MP, there are several chemicals with restrictions and exemptions placed upon their use. These are listed in table 2.
Table 2: List of chemicals controlled by the Montreal Protocol as of the last Kigali amendment
| CFCs, halons, carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), methyl chloroform, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrobromofluorocarbons, methyl bromide, bromochloromethane and other fluorinated gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride (MP,2020). |
The agreement provides a timeline for a phaseout of these chemicals with reasonable allowances for developing countries with an altered phaseout period. These measures were agreed in 1990 to be funded by a new Multilateral Fund for the implementation of the MP (MFMP) (Patlis,1992). The initial concern was to replace CFCs with new chemicals of lower ODP such as HFCs and HCFCs but these were later found to have high GWPs. In response, new substitutes were found such as hydrofluoroolefins to replace them which required yet further funding. The MP has been appraised as an effective global system intervention by many studies and described as a major success in preserving the ozone layer (Mader et al,2010) and substantially mitigating climate change (Goyal et al,2019).
Possible barriers and negative outcomes:
Funding such a large-scale global operation is an issue because it is impractical to offer open-ended funding for the monitoring and regulation of so many organisations involved in this complex supply chain (Farman,2001). This is exampled by recent anomalies in emissions measurements being higher than other reports had stated such as in the cases of CCl4 (Lunt et al,2018) and CFC-11 (Montzka et al,2018).
Using the MPs applied strategy assumes perhaps a fallacious belief in human ingenuity to safely use synthetic materials as a cumulative progression which can continue ad infinitum as inferred by the ‘human exemptionalism paradigm’ (Dunlap and Catton,1979). Addressing this concern are calls for a more ethics-based framework (Read,2017) and existential risk management approach (Spratt & Dunlop,2018) in reformulating sustainability to maintain the integrity of the PP as applied to planetary conservation.
Summary:
The MP presents a valuable lesson for humanity in how the PP can be successfully applied to global environmental problems. It has been effective in achieving its initial objectives accompanied with some unexpected failures. It is a clear example of a wicked problem in action by the interventions implemented having unintended consequences. The designing and funding of this global effort are of staggering difficulty therefore the attention and effort of all actors involved must continue at pace if not increase in capacity to secure the habitability of the planet. Alternatively, a different strategy placing ethics and existential threat as the primary considerations in system interventions may be more effective but may require shifts of global and national system structures.
References:
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The Planetarian mode of civilization allows sustainability 