Hi. I am a now 35 year old student entering my final year of an MSc in Sustainability and my background is in physics having a BSc in Physics. In physics i would class myself as a theoretical physicist concerned with the underlying physical and mathematical theory of the universe and i am attempting to bring this approach to sustainability. I like the broadest of research and the most fundamentals of knowledge in a subject in order to understand and describe it as fully and completely as possible. Specialisation in a field is not my preferred type of research so i am hoping to study the bigger picture of sustainability which is such a transdisciplinary approach combining philosophy, psychology, sociology, economics, politics and environmental science which could be described under the umbrella of the emerging field of global systems science.
Essentially, i would like to determine a plan of action or at least identify some novel approaches of fixing our global systems to avoid further destruction and prevent as much human suffering as possible and even save humanity from extinction. So the content i upload is often work from my degree and thus constrained by word limits and the brief set, but i do also upload academically unsubmitted content.
I am now (November 2020) beginning the process of forming my 16,000 word dissertation research idea, proposal and question where i would like to talk as broadly as possible, covering a large swathe of global systems science topics. Ideally this would form as close to a comprehensive strategy to transform our existing civilization into a sustainable, resilient and adaptive global system to deal with the challenges of climate change and the inherent dangers we pose to ourselves by our actions on this planet. This is a big stretch within such a small word limit and gaining the approval of my lecturers and future supervisor to examine these topics as broadly as i would like, but also for the thesis to be deemed a viable research document, will be a bar i set very high for myself.
Ultimately i know it’s not possible to provide a detailed global strategy within such a dissertation and it would be more fitting of a PhD degree to aim for such great feats. This is why i am considering a global ethics PhD for 2022 as many of these strategies are difficult to manage without ethical considerations and is in part why climate change and transforming civilization are deemed “wicked problems” because of the great deal of subjectivity and philosophical concerns within them. But i still work on such problems outside of my masters degree and do hope to arrive at more detailed, useful solutions before i finish the MSc and/or PhD (should i be clever enough to achieve enrolment on such a study programme).
I am aware of the desperate need for solutions to be provided soon as this emergency is appearing to require a crisis management approach if we are looking at an accelerated or abrupt climate change timeline. Also, i prefer a certain degree of anonymity but i do have a twitter page and may provide a personal email address for correspondence if anyone has any questions or input.
[Previous post update – i should have included the graphic which shows approximately where tipping points might occur at what temperature. So here that is: ]
Here i have compiled a list of important and influential documentaries and lectures. This is not an exhaustive list and i suspect there are many more good videos about the topic. Some of these entries are in a variety of formats including cinematic, documentary, television and lecture formats. I did manage to watch them all, although i had previously watched some before but i still rewatched some of these. Collectively they provide an excellent grounding in the climate and sustainability field. This ranges from political, economic, climate science, real world examples of the effects of climate change, the fight against sceptics, the journey of historical views on climate change and much more. Some are older and some very recent, but i still recommend watching all of them. Watch in any order, you could choose to watch from oldest to newest but i found it more interesting to jump around the list. Most are about an hour long but with some much shorter. This took me about a month to get through them all. Unfortunately i didn’t take notes on each one or even write a brief synopsis of each entry. I may revisit them and add at least some basic detail of the contents of each one. I would argue that this list could be given to new university students in the environmental field to get a broad understanding about the state of the planet and all the interacting elements of nature and society which are effected. If there are any i have missed please let me know via my twitter at https://x.com/Planetarian215 – my twitter is mainly just based on climate twitter, so i only follow academics or people of interest in the climate change field, i would recommend this to anyone as its easier to catch all the newest developments provided by climate twitter. I am also going to recommend some youtube channels which are excellent pages on climate related topics. These are:
BBC planet oil (2015) – FREE on dailymotion – global warming isn’t discussed until part 3 but parts 1 and 2 detail the history of oil which is very interesting –
In order to watch them all i would recommend copy and pasting this into a word document and then after watching each one you can mark it as watched, perhaps by changing the font colour of the video title to say green or red. I do advise taking breaks from viewing as the material can be quite heavy in tone. I am hotly anticipating a documentary about climate change filmed in 2028 where it can review the extremes of 2026 and its el nino and the usually hotter following year of 2027. This could be very stark in tone and truly reveal how we are destroying the planet. Take care of yourselves in this current heatwave. Regards, planetarian85 🙂
[Foreword: i wrote this piece off the top of my head, no references, no fancy statistics but instead a more intuitive style. It was only near the end of the draft that I went back into some of my old blogposts and realised I have mentioned this topic several times with other contexts surrounding it. But I feel there needs to be this reiteration at this current time due to rising and urgent pressures from climate change. Please excuse the disjointedness and rambling, im just doing the best I can right now]
Introduction:
There is a ‘climate bomb’ forming on the horizon where climate systems begin to cross tipping points and cause a cascade of mutliple tipping points to occur. It is described as a bomb because these interconnected systems can potentially be changed over a short time frame and collectively cause a huge shift in carbon dioxide equivalents in the atmosphere and therefore effecting climates severely all at once. Thus, we need to use all the mitigation tools available to us to slow or preferably to halt the advance of climate change.
But as we do this, we must also build resilience and especially adaptation to the coming climate bomb crisis. The main focus here is on the food sector of the food, energy, water (FEW) nexus. Here, I reinvoke an idea I was interested in back in 2017, but now for different reasons. This is the idea of the introduction of food halls, food canteens and food kitchens, which will be referred to as food hubs for the rest of this document.
Food systems:
So to lay out the context of our current system; most places in the developed world rely on a ‘just in time’ business model of selling foods in supermarkets and shops. This means that before stocks of food items become low or out of stock, deliveries arrive to restock these items. The problems with this system are potential for unequal allocation, hoarding, shop lifting and looting that may arise in times of food shocks, insecurity or scarcity. We currently enjoy a state of abundance of food in developed nations as we have robust and plentiful farming practices and huge importing power. But with climate change we are seeing lower crop yields and even crop failures due to inclement weather conditions. For example, a lack of rain or water sources, such as aquifers (which are a finite source), that is being plundered at ever growing rates through the digging of deeper wells to access it. At the other end of the spectrum is flash floods or over saturated soils which can effect the planting season times and damage or rot crops from flooding. Also, the over tilling of soils is seeing a loss of carbon rich soils due to water run off during heavy rainfall periods. So these problems in farming, with highly variable and unpredictable weather conditions due to global warming, threaten food security as crop yields are lowered or destroyed completely.
We are now seeing an accelerated rate of global heating and a greater number of extreme weather events. This means we need to begin building resilience into our food systems and be ready to adapt to climate and food uncertainty. This needs to happen from farm to fork, so all areas of the food system are adapted. Here, I only focus on how food is distributed at the point of sale. As I mentioned, conventional food markets are not able to preserve food security for everyone during food shocks. One simple, tried, and tested method to control food distribution is the introduction of rationing; which may be effective in times of scarcity, but it is limited in adaptation capability to solve other issues that climate change presents. These include the stockpiling of food essentials such as grains and cereals. Supermarkets are not designed to adequately prevent mass shoplifting or looting. These shopping venues are also vulnerable to weather extremes such as flooding or wildfires. This ‘just in time’ business model is unresponsive to restocking essentials in times of scarcity.
Food hubs:
The alternative model proposed here is the building of many large and small food hubs. Their purpose would be primarily as a venue for people to come and purchase healthy meals. The cost of these meals would be sold ‘at cost’, since it would be a government run program which does not seek to make a profit. This cost would also be at ‘true cost’ which takes into account other cost factors such as the amount of water used to grow the foods as well as the chemicals such as fertiliser and pesticides to create plentiful crops. These costs are usually absorbed through government subsidies but food hubs would present true costing as a feature of their carbon and environmental footprint.
These hubs would get priority for essential food items to stockpile such as corn, rice, wheat flour, potatoes and oats, and others such as dairy and eggs. The food hub system might also be appropriate to distribute food stuffs to be used for home cooking. The meals offered would be based around the ‘planetarian’ diet, which is high in plant based food and lower in animal products. Eggs are an excellent nutritious food, that when added to a plant based diet, is referred to as a veggan meal or diet. The food offered at the hubs would be from menus devised by experts in plant based cookery to ensure the tastiest and nutritious of plant based and vegetarian meals are offered.
The food hubs themselves can serve multiple purposes. 1. The fair and equal distribution of food to the public. 2. The emphasis of healthy plant based meals (but not entirely restrictive; meat and dairy food stuffs should also be provided but in limited quantities). 3. The stockpiled foods would be protected from theft since they would be locked away in large rooms or refrigerators and with security officers present to maintain order and protect the food stocks. So, in times of extreme food scarcity due to single or multi year droughts or crop destruction, the food hubs can maintain food availability and keep society functioning.
Other features of the food halls could include multi storied waiting areas where people can enter the hubs in an organised and orderly fashion. These waiting areas can also be used as warm spaces in colder months, so people can stay there for a given time frame when it is likely, more expensive to warm themselves at home. At the opposite extreme, the hubs and waiting areas could act as a cooling centre during extreme heat which is particularly useful to the young, old and unwell. It would be useful for people who have no home air conditioning perhaps because it is unaffordable to them. These warm and cool spaces could be created by using heatpumps, since electrification of everything is a useful climate change mitigation tool to steer us away from fossil fuels. Carparks at these hub facilities could be multi-storied to cater to large numbers of consumers. Solar panels and batteries should be used to cover roofs of the halls, waiting blocks and carparks. The amount of refrigeration needed will be a huge energy demand. One option is to use CO2 refrigeration, which avoids the use of atmospherically toxic refrigerants which can leak out of conventional refrigeration and air conditioning units. Services can also be put into place where people who are unable to physically attend the food hubs, can have home meals delivered using electric vehicles. On a related note, in towns and cities, all taxis and buses should be use electric vehicles since they run all day, everyday.
To adapt the food hubs to increasing variability and strength of weather conditions, they should be located on higher ground and perhaps stilted off the ground to avoid floods destroying the buildings. Location is also a tricky part, as land for such facilities is in scarcity due to other businesses occupying it. But if we look forwards to a future where climate change and other economic forces cause businesses to close due to society’s reduced disposable income due to lack of employment (see AI) or rising costs of food, energy and water (FEW). This state would be described as late stage capitalism where consumerism is no longer a dominant force in economic growth but where it causes a retraction of the economy instead. These business closures may be useful for food hubs but it might take too long to wait for such business closures, when these spaces for food hubs are required more imminently than previously realised. As a UK resident, we have large retail parks, like many European and North Americans do. I see these as locations of interest for food hubs since they have large buildings with large floor space and extensive parking spaces. Other spaces which could be adapted into food hubs include religious venues and sports and concert stadium venues which have massive capacity and large parking sites. I would advocate that the government intervenes sooner rather than later to acquire these spaces under the premise that late stage capitalism is going to render these businesses as bankrupt anyway. We need these spaces to adapt to climate change by building resilience into the food distribution system. These kinds of food hubs could serve very large numbers of people in cities. In less densely populated areas such as rural locations, smaller food hubs can be created.
Another factor that needs addressing, is enticing people to use the food hubs, especially if they are built earlier in this changing climate and no emergency stockpiles are yet required for food security. It is conceivable that like businesses becoming obsolete, aeroplane flights might become unaffordable due to reduced disposable income and increasing FEW prices. But perhaps we could tie in the accessing of meals at food hubs with a points system whereby ordering and eating a plant based or vegetarian meal will add points to your membership card. These points can be accrued such that they would count as air miles which would be a new carbon tax placed on flights. There could be an online airmiles market introduced where people can buy and sell airmiles, so if a customer doesn’t want to fly then they can exchange their accrued points for cash. This system would be particularly useful in taxing one of the most wasteful carbon emitters; the users of private jets. A flight on a private jet would require many more air miles points due to the limited number of passengers and thus taxing the unsustainable use of resources and fossil fuels.
Food shocks – war and el nino:
There are other factors which can produce food shocks, such as the current US, Israel- Iran war where a large quantity of the worlds fertiliser and diesel usually passes through the currently blockaded strait of hormuz. This raises prices for farmers who may decide it is not economically viable to grow a crop in a season when stocks are low (fertiliser) and prices high (diesel). As mentioned, weather can effect crop yields and we are currently heading into an uncertain time for the climate as a potentially large super el nino is forming in the pacific at this very moment. The el nino will increase in strength through and into late 2026 and then the following year is usually where the bigger impacts are felt (eg. higher sea and air temperatures). It has been suggested that this el nino could temporarily push global temperatures 1.7 to 1.8 degrees C above pre industrial levels in 2027. This is uncharted territory and could be the trigger to cause positive feedback loops to begin from surpassing tipping points. El ninos can also impact crops badly, particularly wheat, corn and potatoes. All of these variables contribute to uncertainty of crop yields and we must build alternatives to the ‘just in time’ delivery model of supermarkets and shops to adapt to this uncertainty.
Food shocks – positive feedback loops of tipping points:
The speed at which these food hub adaptations are required was not expected so soon since it was thought this kind of food system fragility due to climate change would not occur for some decades to come. But with the noted acceleration of climate heating, it should be recognised that we need to prepare as soon as possible. This coming ‘climate bomb’ could be triggered by any of a number of climate tipping points. These include:
Thawing permafrost: Permafrost regions of the Arctic, when thawed due to increased temperatures, release the potent greenhouse gas (GHG) methane from existing stores and rotting biomass. An abrupt permafrost carbon feedback from the thaw beneath thermokarst lakes are projected to double radiative forcing from the predicted gradual thaw rate within this century (Anthony et al,2018). This warming will cause further permafrost melt and release of methane.
Methane hydrates: Methane, when frozen in water, forms a hydrate ice water. Frozen into the seabed is a reservoir of such methane hydrates (Archer,2007). If this were to melt it would release the methane and cause further warming thereby forming a feedback mechanism causing ice to melt at further depth in the seabed.
Polar ice melt: Melting sea and land ice at the poles reveals the seawater or land beneath it which decreases the albedo for incident radiation and more is absorbed by the planet than would be reflected by ice. This further warms the land, atmosphere and oceans causing further melting (Andry, Bintanja & Hazeleger,2017).
Increased water vapour in the air: Global warming can cause more sea and land water evaporation which creates more clouds. This traps more heat in the atmosphere and exacerbates the greenhouse effect (Trenberth et al,2015).
Migration of tropical clouds: Movement of clouds away from tropical regions toward the poles can lead to decreased rainfall and expansion of sub-tropical zones (Norris et al,2016). New research suggests that clouds could disappear completely at an atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of 1200 ppm. The planet could be on track to reach this by 2100 in a ‘business as usual’ scenario. This would happen in a world which is 4°C warmer than pre-industrial levels (PIL) and would further warm the world another 8 ° C. Such an event would wipe out most life on earth including humans (Schneider, Kaul & Pressel,2019).
Green carbon sinks – forests, terrestrial plants and soils
Forests and plants: With increased deforestation and forest dieback we see less CO2 absorbed by photosynthetic plants and trees. This allows atmospheric CO2 to rise which increases temperatures further and causes more forest dieback. Forest dieback contributes to precipitation reduction, firstly, by the biophysical feedback of reduced forest cover reducing evaporative water recycling. Secondly through the biogeochemical feedback by the release of CO2 adding to global warming. There is also a physiological forcing whereby rising CO2 forces stomatal closure which is the site of the plant through which gaseous exchange occurs (Betts et al,2004). Forests and terrestrial plants absorb carbon through a phytolithic sequestration process which is coupled to the biogeochemical silicon cycle. Silicon fertilizers can enhance carbon uptake (Song et al,2017).
Soils: Soils contain more carbon stores than all terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere combined (Batjes,2016). Intensive agriculture from overgrazing and tilling contributes to depleting this vital carbon sink which could be managed better with regenerative agriculture methods (Marshall,2015).
Blue carbon sinks – Oceans and coastal ecosystems
Oceans: The solubility pump describes the process of atmospheric CO2 dissolving in seawater and it is the primary mechanism of CO2 uptake in ocean waters (Lade et al,2018). The solubility of CO2 in seawater decreases with increasing water temperature and thus with less CO2 absorbed there is increased heating which further reduces seawater CO2 solubility. The biological pump is that which describes the ocean life which sequesters carbon through the food web. An essential part played in this food web is that of phytoplankton which absorbs carbon into their shells. Ocean acidification, which increases with the increased amount of CO2 absorbed, reduces the ability of phytoplankton to thrive and form the carbonates needed for their shells thus reducing their numbers and sequestration capacity.
Coastal ecosystems: Mangrove forests along the coasts are also a carbon sink which if lost to sea level rise would reduce CO2 absorption and create a feedback loop (Wilson,2017).
Teal Carbon sinks – Freshwater wetlands
Wetlands: Wetlands hold a disproportionately large amount of carbon when compared to other soils. They only account for 5-8% of the earth’s land surface yet hold between 20-30% of total soil carbon (Nahlik & Fennessy,2016).
Here is another list which describes some of the same as well as other tipping points:
Green house gas concentrations in the atmosphere
Forest Dieback weakens the ecosystem leaving it more vulnerable to further dieback
Forest Fires spreading to human settlements increasing carbon dioxide emissions
Polar ice caps, sea ice and glacier melt reduces surface albedo and increases sea level
Melting of permafrost and methane hydrates under sea releasing potent GHG methane into the atmosphere
Watervapour in the atmosphere as a green house gas
Migration of tropical clouds towards poles, Unpredictable changes to monsoon seasons
Thermohaline circulation disruption due to decreased water salinity
Aquifer and water table depletion
Increased carbon dioxide can cause stomatal closure in leaves which limits gaseous exchange and decreases the uptake of further carbon dioxide
Rainforest hydrological cycle, transpiration from trees creates microclimate that is self sustaining and recycles water in that ecosystem
Boreal Forests as carbon sinks
Mangrove forests as carbon sinks
Wetlands and Peat bogs as carbon sinks
Soil erosion as soil is a vital carbon sink eg. Overgrazing, tilling
Rainforest Land Coverage as a carbon sink
Ocean biological pump – eg. Phytoplankton as a carbon sink and oxygen producer
Ocean solubility pump – beyond carbon dioxide saturation it can no longer absorb it
When this climate bomb triggers due to any of these tipping points being transgressed, we need to be prepared and adapted so we can be resilient against climate threats. I don’t feel that the term climate bomb is alarmist as it adequately communicates the danger of the situation. It is a term that derives from the challenges we face which is delineating from a progressive (although accelerating) change in climate to one which shifts from its existing state into one of consecutive, or simultaneous climate emergencies globally. This paper should not be a source of fear but instead recognised as a practical way to shift our society into a more protected regime. It could not only prevent societal collapse but also create a safer and healthier population. When considering how people may respond to the ideas described in this paper, I can imagine some worrying that society would become a controlled dystopia as a result of the introduction of food hubs. I do see this viewpoint as the potential for control, or limiting freedoms. This concept may be unpopular, particularly in the western nations which can have very individualistic values. But I would argue that it is a better alternative to an uncontrolled dystopia where lawlessness spreads across continents, but instead food hubs secure the safeguarding of healthy food for all.
So how can we bring about the change needed?
There are two main components to this. First is the willingness of the public to request such infrastructure be put in place. The second is the political will to act in the face of danger that climate change threatens. A good way to model a change in the future, created through human action, is using something called a cultural future orientation (CFO). This is a chart that models factors in the process of imagining a future and then bringing it into existence. Future consciousness and future orientation are similar and related theories with future consciousness being larger in scope and the components of future orientation partly contained within it. By integrating and focussing some of the elements of future consciousness with future orientation for a collective, we can form a distinct model of behaviour change we might define as a cultural future orientation (CFO). The gap in the environmental research field has noted a need for the development of a cultural future orientation perspective (Carmi and Arnon, 2014). A suggested model for cultural future orientation is shown below.
Cultural future orientation integrates the element of openness to alternatives from future consciousness and a new element of tangibility is added to the process. Communication at all levels is modelled on the social ecological model (with top-down from public policy down to intrapersonal scales and a grass roots “bottom-up” process (Mcleroy et al. 1988). Tangible hopes and fears, or the valency of the affect component in culturalist future orientation, can be a powerful motivator to realign values and expectations to reach satisfactory outcomes.
The first two columns of the model will be explained one at a time in relation to the introduction of food hubs worldwide.
Extension: This describes the timeframe of the objective at hand. Future orientation is about imagining a future goal and then taking steps to create the change. There are some timeframes out there about reductions of greenhouse gases by a certain amount, by a certain year. Such as the Paris agreement or net zero policies, which tend to range from 2040 to 2055. A more recent timeframe was provided by the IPCC special 1.5 report (2018) which stated that globally, we would require a 45% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Many people, including myself, argued that this timeframe for such an action is not aggressive enough. This was due to factors in IPCC reporting which inadequately capture the issue at the time of publishing due to exclusion of feedback loop factors (due to unpredictability) and using 3 year old data to generalise predictions. So, given the uncertainty about timeframes I will leave this open to interpretation, but that we do need largescale changes as we approach 2030 and beyond.
Detail: This describes how changes may come about. In the case of food hubs this means funding for the project, locations to install hubs, logistics of food supply chains for the hubs etc.
Domain: This describes the area of influence the changes would impact. So this includes food supply chains, diet transitions, changes to personal routines etc.
Affect: Affect means the valency of an emotion such as positive (hopes) or negative (fears). So if there was enthusiasm for a safer food distribution method with added benefits it brings to dealing with climate extremes, this would be hopes. Fears would be the fear of lack of access to staple foods and social unrest due to this, which can cause lawlessness and looting. The fear of devastating effects on our food chain supply due to climate change should warrant the desire of a more robust and secure food distribution scheme.
Awareness of risks/rewards: This is similar to affect. But this is about the getting the best and most accurate sources of data about risks of climate to the population communicated effectively to everyone. Rewards in this instance would be protection of food supply and general safety of society.
Tangibility: This is the component that I personally added to the future orientation model. I think it takes a certain amount of impact to a person or in this case, society, for them to recognise the risk is real and happening all around them. The greater the number of people who experience climate change related incidents, the greater the desire for action to be taken. This is really starting to increase now in the 2020s with huge numbers of record breaking floods, wildfires, droughts, maximum temperatures and other impacts. These are generally felt in a small section of society at a time. But when these dangers begin causing multinational negative effects, the whole population of a nation can recognise that we must act strongly and expediently.
Motivation: The main motivation for building food hubs is generally not one of desire but necessity. People can recognise that as the climate system rocks us back and forth between extremes, we need to safeguard what is most important, which, second to water, is food.
Control: The public, particularly western nations, currently has control over what they choose to eat and where and when. Governments have control over how much food is imported and the support they give to farmers through subsidies. With the introduction of food halls we become more restricted in what foods we eat but we have exerted our will to ensure everyone has enough to eat. Governments would have control of overseeing the project, its logistics and responding to supply and demand of the hubs.
Sequence of events: This constitutes a detailed plan to invest in and build these food hubs in the places where they are needed. The first thing to be done is to persuade ourselves and then politicians that this is necessary. It could start with pilot projects to see how the systems work together.
Openness to alternatives: This is another feature I added to the CFO, which was borrowed from future consciousness. This factor is about introducing a new method of food distribution to society and how receptive they are to using it. It primarily is there as a safety net in case of severe food shocks but it would hopefully be viewed as an affordable and convenient method to eating out. This transition would see a move away from fast foods as in times of scarcity the priority for food stuffs would go to the hubs and less so to the conglomerate food chains which would become overly expensive during such times anyway.
Number of cognitions: The final element of CFO describes how well thought out the plan is. It includes the thoughts of the public recognising that climate change is a threat to society and one’s own personal safety. Then the amount of thought given to the project to maximise its potential and avoid pitfalls associated with the rollout of hubs worldwide. The more thought the goes into the plan, the more successful it will be.
Then a large component of CFO is communication, which must occur at all levels to successfully install the food hubs. So this is grass roots intrapersonal, interpersonal, organizational, community and top down public policy. The latter being the most important in getting the food hubs project in motion.
What can you do to bring about change?
To get the change needed requires political will. In the UK you can write to your local MP who may bring it up in parliament. You could write to the green party and get them to include these changes as part of their manifesto. Another option is to make a petition on GOV.org, which if it gets signed by over 100 thousand people it must be brought up in parliament. In other countries you can write to any person in political life such as governors, senators, mayors and councils.
Conclusion:
The future climate conditions are unpredictable and food shocks can happen at anytime due to various factors. Using food hubs to manage food security in a controlled and measured manner could save many lives and prevent societal breakdown. The world is now on the cusp of transition. On one hand it could transition into an advanced civilization which controls what needs to be controlled and navigate climate change with care. On the other hand is the threat to the fabric of society which could unravel under pressure from the climate. Believe you can do this and be open to alternatives, which is the gateway to safety.
To read some of my other articles which I have partly borrowed from, click these links:
On an unrelated note – an extension to my theory of physics:
As a side note here, I would like to make an addition to my theory of physics since I no longer have access to that blog. This idea seems obvious but it came to me long after I published my original theory (please excuse the many typos):
I propose that electrons are ring like shaped. This makes sense in my theory because in an incandescent lightbulb, when electricity is passed through a metal filament, the vibrations of the electrons create photons of light. In my original theory I understood that the rapid back and forth motion of electrons caused the formation of a rift or hole in space which then became a photon of a swirling vortex of space, around and through a toroidal shaped 2D surface , which creates its own timefield of moving space. This snapping back and forth punches the hole in space and if the electron is ring shaped, this makes the creation of pockets in space (the precursor of a photon) more clearly understood.
Thats it from me. Dont believe the bullshit.. think for yourselves.
Ecosystems are dependent on the atmosphere to maintain a delicate balance of weather and variable climate conditions to thrive (Frank et al.,2015). Climate change (CC) is causing more extreme deviations from previously recorded weather patterns and this is creating instabilities in a wide variety of ecosystems and their accompanying biospheres (Frank et al.,2015). These hypothesised tipping points in globally interconnected ecological systems (Image 1), which if a threshold is crossed, could irreversibly devastate not just single ecosystems but negatively impact other connected ecosystems (Lenton et al.,2019).
The main contributors to anthropogenic climate change (CC) are the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide and several classes of synthetic halogenated compounds which are substances that contain a halogen element in their structure such as fluorine, chlorine, bromine, iodine, or astatine. Within the halogenated gases class are an array of chemicals that possess the highest global warming potential (GWP) of any other known substances. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC’s) have relatively low GWP values but are largely no longer used in industrial manufacturing due to their high ozone depleting potentials (ODP’s) thus them being phased out for use as mandated by the Montreal Protocol (MP) (Norman, DeCanio & Fan,2008). Other classes of halogenated gases include hydrofluorocarbons (HFC’s), perfluorocarbons (PFC’s), hydrofluoroolefins (HFO’s) and other potent GHG compounds such as sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). These classes all belong to a separate class of halogenated compounds which do not contain chlorine but do contain fluorine and are defined as fluorinated gases, or F-gases for shorthand (Sovacool et al.,2021).
An important distinction between most F-gases and other GHG’s is that most of their emissions are fugitive emissions (meaning they escape or leak from their intended use), whereas most other GHG emissions are produced because of direct human activities (EPA,2014). GHG emissions which are by-products of human activities mean it could be possible to stop or drastically reduce them, such as fossil fuel burning and ruminant cattle farming. There is also potential to remove more CO2 from the atmosphere by reinforcing carbon sink capacities or removal using direct carbon capture technologies (Marcucci, Kypreos & Panos,2017). This distinction sets F-gases apart from other GHGs because their emissions are largely a waste product of industrial, commercial, agricultural, and domestic uses of the gases themselves, and once they are released into the atmosphere there is currently no means of extracting them.
Evidence, Analysis and Argument:
The biosphere and atmosphere interaction:
Human activities in rainforest ecosystems in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector contribute to the reduction of the global ecosystem services it provides (Roman-Cuesta et al.,2016). Many activities cause deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, such as logging, livestock farming, mining, oil drilling, and soy plantations. The global land carbon sink strength is a measure of the mitigation capacity of anthropogenic carbon emissions, which currently equates to approximately 30% (Duffy et al.,2021). Climate change also effects the land carbon strength capacity since global photosynthesis and respiration metabolic rates are temperature dependent and there are narrow optimum values for temperature ranges for photosynthetic ecosystems (Ma et al.,2017). Images 2 and 3 show that as temperatures increase, photosynthesis rates decline, and respiration rates increase for both C3 and C4 plants (most rainforest plants are C3 type with grasses and corn being C4 type plants for example). This has been modelled by the macromolecular rate theory which is based on variations in enzyme catalyzed processes such as the Krebs cycle or cytochrome pathways in leaf respiration (Liang et al.,2018).
Image 2: Photosynthesis and respiration rates of C3 and C4 plants versus temperature. (Source: Duffy et al.,2021)
Image 3: The temperature dependence of the terrestrial carbon sink (blue line) with photosynthesis of c3/c4 plants integrated as the green dashed curve and red dashed dotted line showing increasing respiration rates. Current climate ranges lie within the grey shaded box. (Source: Duffy et al.,2021)
This climate regulation service is predominantly provided by rainforests of the globe with the tropical rainforests of the Amazon accounting for ~50% of rainforests in the world (Qin et al, 2021). Degradation of the Amazon rainforest such as forest dieback from drought and natural wildfires accounts for 73% of the loss of aboveground biomass (Qin et al.,2021) and contributes significantly to the potential of the ecosystem switching from a carbon sink into a net carbon source (Covey et al, 2021). Amazon rainforest tipping points are estimated to occur at 4°C temperature rise and deforestation of 40% of forest area (Nobre et al.,2016).
Atmospheric water vapor (H2O) is the largest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect as it is a GHG with around two or three times a greater contribution to the greenhouse effect relative to CO2 (IPCC 5AR WG1,2013). It is not considered as an anthropogenic gas but instead as a feedback agent partly because it resides in the troposphere for around 10 days before it condenses and falls as precipitation. The amount of H2O in the air is predominantly temperature dependent and with every extra degree of increase in atmospheric air temperature, there is a 7% increase in retention capacity in the atmosphere to hold H2O (IPCC 5AR WG1,2013). Other greenhouse gases such as CO2 effect the H2O content of the atmosphere as it’s presence is required to hold it in the atmosphere (IPCC 5AR WG1,2013). This process and the interaction of temperature and H2O is shown in image 4.
Image 4: The water cycle and it’s role in the greenhouse effect. The top left panel shows increases in atmospheric water vapour with increasing temperature. (Source: IPCC 5AR WG1,2013)
F-gases – Their management and emissions:
Existing global agreements to manage halogenated gases include the MP and it’s most recent amendment, the 2016 Kigali Accord (KA); the Kyoto Protocol; and the nationally determined emissions reduction pledges of the 2015 Paris Agreement. F-gas emissions are growing at a faster rate than any other class of GHG’s, especially in developing countries (EIB,2016). It is stated that sustained and comprehensive interventions are required to curb the uncontrolled growth of F-gas emissions or they could undo the progress of existing climate governance policies (Höglund-Isaksson et al.,2017).
The use of F-gases is growing at an aggressive rate which is expected to accelerate faster than economic growth rates (Durkee,2006). There are three main drivers of this acceleration (Sovacool et al.,2021) which are (1.) unanticipated effects of the MP, (2.) growth in the global demand for cooling, and (3.) loopholes in existing commitments.
The switch from high ODP substances to other chemicals such as HFC’s and PFC’s was mandated by the MP. The climate benefits of ozone protection could be significantly offset by the projected emissions of HFC’s over the next decades (WMO,2014).
Without mitigation actions, the growing demand for cooling and refrigeration from the growth of the middle classes in developing nations such as China and India, is projected to increase the consumption and resultant global emissions of HFC’s (Congressional Research Service,2020).
The KA addresses the growth of HFC’s but does not include phasing out of other classes of halogenated gases and does not address emissions from ‘banks’ of halogenated gases (UNEP,2019). It commits to reduce HFC consumption and production by 80-85% by the late 2040’s and there are exemptions for countries with high ambient temperatures (Roberts,2017).
Present day emissions of HFC’s represent just 1% of global GHG emissions but if left unabated their growth could reach 19% of GHG emissions by 2050 (EIB,2016). Global adherence with the KA is expected to remove 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the period 2018-2050 (Höglund-Isaksson et al.,2017). Investing in energy efficient refrigeration and air conditioning (AC) could possibly double this mitigation through the reduction of other GHG emissions produced by electricity consumption (Shah et al.,2015).
F-gas uses and applications:
The uses of F-gases are replete within human society. Their applications are numerous ranging from industrial, commercial, domestic and medical uses. Modern civilization’s sociotechnical systems dependence on these synthetic and potent GHG’s represents potentially the most critical, yet poorly understood sociotechnical system related to CC (Sovacool et al.,2021). Image 5 illustrates the complexity of F-gas uses which are multi scalar and multi temporal in scope.
Image 5: F-gases as a sociotechnical framework (Source: Sovacool et al,2021)
Comprehensive studies of F-gas uses by humanity demonstrate no less than 21 categories of their emissions sources (Sovacool et al.2021; Harnisch, Stobbe & de Jager,2001). Appendix I provides a detailed breakdown of their numerous uses.
These include:
Air Conditioning – Stationary, Mobile, and Buildings. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC)
Refrigeration
Materials – Plastics and Foams
Fire fighting – Fire extinguishers
Chemicals – Solvents and Aerosols
Non ferrous metal production and processing – Magnesium and Aluminium
Electronics – Semiconductors, LCD monitors and Screens, Circuit boards
Electrical equipment and Switchgear
Healthcare and medicine – Meter dosed inhalers
Fumigation and pest control – Methyl bromide
Double glazed and soundproof windows
Use in Commercial products – Automobile tires, sports shoes, tennis balls, apparel
Manufacture and use of renewable energy technologies – Solar panels, Wind turbines
Leakage detection
Atmospheric research and science
Military applications
By-product emissions of HCFC production
Miscellaneous Industrial products
Manufacturing and distribution losses
Disposal, banks, recycling
Destruction of F-gases
Image 6: Market shares of HFC consumption (Source: UNEP,2015)
The largest proportion of global usage of HFC’s is used for the refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump sector (RACHP) at 86% of the GWP-weighted share of HFC consumption (Image 6) (UNEP,2015). This is in part why refrigerant management and the use of alternative refrigerants is hailed as the most impactful mitigation strategy against climate change (Hawken,2018).
Halogenated gases, the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere:
Current average global land temperatures are at around 1.2° C above the pre-industrial levels and are still rising (Hausfather,2020). The projected total emissions of halogenated gases alone could cause a temperature change of almost half a degree by 2100 (Forster & Joshi,2005) as shown in image 7. This temperature increase would come with effects on other processes such as increasing photorespiration and reducing photosynthesis of plants and increasing the feedback mechanism of increased H2O in the atmosphere via increased CO2 as well as increased temperature, which would cause yet more warming.
Image 7: The contribution of halogenated gas groups to the tropical cold-point temperature change since 1950 (Source: Forster & Joshi,2005)
This warming could be mitigated fully by widespread adoption of the KA (IGSD,2018) (Image 8), which is yet to be ratified by all nations, with the notable abstinence of the United States of America (USA). This is subject to change with the announcement by the Biden administration that the USA will ratify the treaty within the first one hundred days of his office commencement (The Whitehouse,2021).
Image 8: Expected temperature changes with business-as-usual or the Kigali amendment protocols adhered to (Source: IGSD,2018)
Conclusions:
Halogenated gas emissions pose a significant risk as severe forcing agents for CC and their proper management is required to minimise the risk of their global warming impacts. These could include pushing terrestrial biomes beyond tipping points which would reduce and potentially eliminate the vital ecosystem services they provide as a powerful carbon sink. The multifarious uses of F-gases in our sociotechnical systems demonstrate how embedded our reliance on these chemicals are for the functioning of modern society. The Kigali amendment is the most recent effort to curb F-gas emissions but is yet to be ratified and implemented by all nations. It has the potential to mitigate up to 0.5°C of global temperature rise by 2100 through the phaseout and control of F-gases, predominantly HFCs. Such a temperature rise could threaten the delicate balance of our most powerful carbon sinks in rainforests with the notable example of the Amazon rainforest providing the greatest contribution to global land carbon strength capacity. With increasing temperatures from climate change reducing photosynthesis and increasing respiration rates due to effects on enzyme catalyzed reactions, it is ever more important to make global changes to our greenhouse gas emissions to prevent forest degradation and prevent the possibility of carbon sinks from transforming into net carbon sources. The effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions creating further temperature rise increases the global warming effect of water vapor in the atmosphere and also acts as a positive feedback loop. Other sources of human activities that reduce the land carbon strength capacity of rainforests come from the AFOLU sector where significant damage has been done and continues to be done to the ecosystem services which they provide. Deforestation for logging and animal agriculture are particularly the main causes for land use change and more needs to be done to protect these vital ecosystems.
This literature review could be expanded to discuss potential mitigation actions to limit warming that would occur from continued use of F-gases and the potential for strengthening and accelerating phaseout restrictions as well as discussing implementation of tighter controls over black-market trading of these controlled substances.
The implications of continued use of F-gases and their direct global warming potential will see continued global temperature rises and deleterious impacts on terrestrial carbon sinks such as the Amazon rainforest. This could offset progress of future actions taken to reduce global warming which poses an existential threat to humanity and biospheres globally. Research gaps that have been identified by a recent systematic literature review (Sovacool et al.,2021) include the identification of a need for crosscutting solutions and the need for more work on F-gases in developing nations such as China especially. An exploration of synergies between F-gases and other systems such as energy, transport and metal-working may be useful in identifying potential solutions.
The refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pump has been identified as the sector most responsible for the existing and future expanded uses of HFCs. If resources were available it would be worthwhile focusing on exploring methods to reduce the need for these activities such as green buildings which use physical methods to control internal air temperatures such as external shading and internal insulation methods.
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Appendix I: Halogenated gases by usage category, specific uses and application types. (Source: adapted from Sovacool et al.,2021, Harnisch, Stobbe & de Jager,2001)
Halogenated gas emissions source category
Subcategories and specific uses of halogenated gases
Halogenated gas Classes and applications in uses
Air Conditioning
Stationary – Space cooling Buildings – Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) – Direct and reversible heat pumps Centralised systems Secondary chillers – eg. Basement operated and distributed cooling Mobile – Cars, trucks, busses, railroad, aircraft
HFCs & PFCs +(Refrigerants)
Refrigeration
Domestic Small commercial Supermarket Cold storage and food processing Industrial Refrigerated transport – reefer ships, containers, railcars, road – transport refrigerated units (TRU’s)
HFCs & PFCs +(Refrigerants)
Materials
Plastics and Foams: Polyurethane – Rigid: Automotive parts, Insulation (including for refrigerators and freezers), Varnish. Flexible: Tubing – pipes and hoses Integral skin: Shoe soles, Furniture cushions and padding Extruded polystyrene – Underlay, insulation, packaging Polyolefins: Polypropylene – packaging, plastic bags Polyethylene – foam mats Polyisocyanurate – insulation Phenolic foams – insulation (fire resistant)
HFCs +(blowing agents)
Firefighting
Fixed flooding systems – sensitive systems like computer and telecommunications servers, military and security applications Portable
Manufacture and testing of gas insulated switchgear (GIS), leakage from maintenance, operation and malfunction of GIS, Bushings, gas-insulated lines, high voltage and vacuum circuit breakers, ring main units, high voltage outdoor instrument transformers
Agricultural fumigation – biocide for soils Treatment of wood, structures and durable commodities – eliminate pests and rodents Disinfecting of perishable goods – preserve for transport, avoid transfer of pests for exports/imports
Air exchange measurements in architecture or building design Testing piping systems, test integrity of vacuum apparatus Precision localization of leaks in water-bearing pipes of district heating systems
SF6+(tracer gas)
Atmospheric research and science
Air current and GHG diffusion measurements Chemical tracer to detect cold air currents Environmental meteorology – air movements, distribution of odours or vapours in low wind situations Atmospheric measurement of methane emission by cattle Measuring impact of nuclear weapon explosions X-ray material testing X-ray linear accelerator for medical therapy Electron microscopes
SF6+(tracer gas)
Military applications
Refrigeration in nuclear submarines and other confined spaces Wind supersonic channels Insulation of airborne warning and control system (AWACS) radar domes
Production of polymers, solvents, pharmaceuticals (Ibuprofen), paper production, heavy duty anti corrosive and adhesive, motorway parking paint, automotive belts and hoses, gaskets, rafts and rescue boats, armour, helmets, containers for dangerous good, protective clothing, generation of high-grade graphite for graphitisation
The most interesting thing i find here is the neo-distributism component on the sustainable circular civilization pathway. This is where we form a club model of nations and nation states that share many of their natural resources freely such as plentiful water or relatively warmer winter weather amongst a populous which is managed in an ego-ethical framework to cooperate and live within our planetary budget. I hope to be studying this in more depth in late 2022 once I have completed an MSc in sustainability hopefully by June 2022.
An idea on transforming currency, wealth and how to fund the ego-ethical neo-ditributist model to create a sustainable future:
68% existing wealth is TRANSPOSED into ecounits via a steadily increasing inflation rate on existing currencies until it’s worth is devalued into non existence. Requires investment into environmentally friendly profit making business models.
14% existing cash is TRANSFORMED into sustainable capitalist credits for uses such as air miles.
13% existing wealth is TAXED to be used for purposes of a neo-distributist ego-ethical model framework where nations and nation states pool natural resources and new infrastructure is built using this tax amongst the member states.
5% existing wealth is RETAINED as it is in it’s natural currency.
[These are notes from a short course on global ethics. It introduces some issues about the philosophy of inequality, identity, immigration and climate change. It highlights how the philosophy of global ethics can be used to discuss the ethical issues with sustainability and climate change]
Global ethics:
the duties we have to save lives or prevent suffering
the responsibilities people have for causing some of these problems, and thus for putting them right
everyone having certain basic rights to subsistence or to live without fear of death
the bad consequences for humankind of contributing to continuing climate change
what any decent, moral, virtuous person would do, within their power, to address these issues.
Issues and problems in global ethics are ones that arise from interactions between individuals, communities, states or institutions across the world, and can only be addressed if individuals, communities, states or institutions across the world act together.
1. For all to develop a greater individual self determination; and greater understanding, tolerance and variety of responses to situations and people around us; which are all essential for our ability to interact and respond effectively throughout our lives. Cybernetics is the science of control and communication. The first law of cybernetics (Ashby’s law or the law of requisite variety) states that “The unit within the system with the most behavioural responses available to it controls the system”. Therefore global ethics knowledge and understanding is particularly important for those that “control” the system such as national leaders, governments, secret service intelligence agencies, business leader, the most wealthy, academics, religious leaders and the media.
2. Overpopulation, Rights of future generations and Climate Change.
3. Deontology states that we are morally obliged to do things. It has connections to
Kantianism: Rational beings have dignity and should be respected
Humanism: Emphasises the value and agency of humans individually and collectively. Favours critical thinking and evidence rather than dogma and superstition
On your last point i have a feeling that we might need to invoke a sort of ethical egoism where the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Ethical egoism states that whatever maximises ones personal good is right, thus, to act that best further this end is one sole obligation. This is why philosophy is so subjective.
Sadism: Cruel and vicious behaviour. Humiliation and hurting others to assert dominance or for pleasure.
I know of this disparity and my initial thought was to think of why is it this way? I immediately think of immorality vs morality. Morality serves the needs of the many, is selfless, provides security and safety, is compassionate, honourable and is about survival. Immorality serves self interests and is governed by desire, greed, ego, common interests, fear, hatred and involves agendas.
This is true that philanthropy and charity from individuals can save the lives of many who are victim to their situations and circumstances. The existence of charitable foundations are vital to keep awareness of and limit these avoidable tragedies in humanity. I believe that prevention is better than cure and that efforts which address the underlying issues are more powerful than addressing the effects of global inequality but this does not preclude a need for their activities. A global change in how we operate as a civilization would require deep understanding, planning, communication and cooperation to resolve the many vagaries across the planet. This is where researchers and academics have the power to change the world to influence global leaders to take effective action.
I agree in the sense that my awareness of the issue has now been made from listening to the argument and i feel compelled to follow the logic and do what is suggested. But as humans we are fickle and easily forget ideas unless we form habits which if repeated daily for around 2 months can become lifelong habits research has shown. The word “should” is perhaps incorrect in the argument because as human beings we possess agency and perhaps the moral obligation would fall on international leaders to address these problems as opposed to single individuals making single contributions which is akin to plugging holes in a sinking ship or stamping out fires as they crop up. But those who are empathetic and compassionate will be more inspired by the argument to take on this moral responsibility but as humans we are not all as caring for one another as a species. Our western world is predominantly capitalist which drives competition to achieve our goals and some may think that buying the coffee helps them succeed personally and capitalism media promotes self interest so the media plays a part. I personally believe in global systemic change to correct injustices by addressing the root causes.
The argument is sound but it relies on many individuals hearing of these premises and using understanding and compassion to act on them. A more practical way of carrying out this aid would be for government agencies to subsidise their aid programs by deducting a donation of a workers wage and indicating this on their payslip. This would assume that national leaders have knowledge of these premises and enforced them by using logic to deduce that it is right that all those employed would also use logic to deduce that it is the correct action to take. Whilst this notion would be more efficacious it removes individual agency from employees to choose what they do with their wages and that in itself becomes a moral dilemma. But clearly there is a lesser of two evils here. But this type of action does not occur explicitly but instead many western governments do provide aid to impoverished nations which is funded by tax payer money. Have the government agencies a duty to increase funding if these problems are still going unresolved? Perhaps this idea of explicitly stating that a donation from people’s wages is going to international aid would be a constant reminder of our fortunate lives?
It seems a defeatist activity for individuals to provide aid that would be sufficient enough to prevent such tragedies from continuously reoccurring without western nations explicitly changing our modes of capitalist consumption and declaring that the nation is now acting in the best interests of the entire globe. This would include addressing the many actions our societies take which cause many vagaries of civilization such as slave labour, importing goods from countries that have poor human rights records, tax evasion and ultra rich tax havens. Individual actions may be better spent in tackling these issues and holding international leaders accountable for allowing our world to operate with such immoral practices.
Effective altruism is a philosophy and social movement that advocates using evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. Altruism refers to improving the lives of others—as opposed to egoism, which emphasizes only self-interest
I agree with the sentiment provided earlier in the comments that not only money can be used to solve such issues; the donation of providing awareness and our time could be just as if not more effective. I think that the global ethical issue of climate change is the perfect storm from which to resolve many problems with international inequalities whilst addressing the existential threat of extinction having changed our planet into a potentially uninhabitable place. From a systems perspective these issues are systemic and using knowledge, foresight, planning aswell as ethical reasoning seem a more effective form of effective altruism by addressing the root causes of systemic issues.
I agree with the utilitarian and Marxist ideal of the greatest wellbeing of the greatest number and to each according to their ability to other’s needs. In the example of climate change it is true that to completely eradicate poverty might not only require a total systemic rethink on capitalism or even socialism and communism. It might use so many resources if an ineffective resolution is deployed such that our efforts may require the use of a greenhouse gas emissions budget the world does not possess and by exceeding this budget it may result in climate change making humans extinct from the planet.
It is true that aid donations can save lives but do not our very national ideals of economic growth cause many of these problems directly and indirectly. Especially when it comes to the climate change example, it is the developed world that has acted for decades in a way such that we are beginning to potentially alter the environment irreversibly and it will be the developing nations less capable of mitigating the issue, adapting to the consequences and becoming resilient to its impacts. I would take the view that greater awareness of climate change issues can bring many more minds to the resolving the issue and preparing individuals to adapt to lifestyles that are more in line with a sustainable planet to avoid a threat which could create far more poverty, illness and death to developing world populations.
I think this is a good analogy for climate change that it is developed nations that have used developing nations to fulfill our capitalist consumption habits. The effects of climate change and a nations ability to cope with them is an inequality with the moral dilemma that developed nations must act to secure a livable world for all having the greater capacity to introduce mitigating measures. But then the greenhouse gas emissions required to mitigate climate change alone might leave very little in the carbon budget to then help developing nations that will suffer the consequences of climate change. The analogy here might be that developed nations as a gang have pushed developing nations into the pond but in doing this our arms and legs have become tied and leaving us unable to directly protect the developing nations and we can only give instruction from the sidelines on how to save themselves without risking our own lives to save them from drowning as we would drown also. A very depressing thought and many empathetic compassionate people will also find this issue of great distress. But we must be strong and take the action that we can to undo what we have thoughtlessly caused.
According to a deontological view, whether something is right or not, depends not on its consequences, but on the rights and duties of those involved. Deontology focuses on what we owe.
A positive duty is a duty to do something in particular, such as looking after your elderly parents. A negative duty is a duty not to do something.
There are many ways of pursuing this ideal of not harming those in the developed world such as not buying fast fashion, buy fair trade, sustainable goods, create a startup company supplying fairtraded and ethically produced clothing or become an employee of such a company. To have sufficient impact will probably require developed nations to secure the ability to provide it’s citizens with a large enough capacity of retail clothing that is produced ethically and without harm to others, whether they are in developed or undeveloped nations.
education and self education about these type of issues can help inform individuals who for some, will not only have awareness of the implications of their lifestyles but they may act to educate themselves further to attempt to rectify the many global injustices. Those who only do the former and become aware can be ready to accept, adjust to and push for ethical governance so that they no longer become disempowered citizens complicit with the global hierarchy of domination of the rich nations over the poor.
the notion of an obligatory payment enforced by governments would be more efficacious but it also removes individual agency from employees to choose what they do with their wages and that in itself becomes a moral dilemma. But clearly there is a lesser of two evils here. I believe that what will become the more pressing issues will be to systemically redesign the global models of trade and perhaps using an ego ethical perspective to solve the problem of climate change such that those who have the capacity to act should do so and in doing so, where possible, limit harm to those less capable of preventing harm from both corrupt trade deals and the consequences of climate change.
I think the individuals focus should be on learning about what actions they take in their lives are sustainable and unsustainable for the planet and what enables these to exist in our lives such as being produced or provided to us at the expense of other nations and individuals. Living more sustainable lifestyles is a good action for people to practice but we should also be made aware that our capitalist systems do not support us in living sustainably. Citizens are expected to work 40 hours a week and this leaves little time to eat and consume sustainably which exacerbates the issue because our lifestyles and work lives make us sicker from fast food after a long days work and we are less able to achieve actions of sustainable living. Knowing that it is the system itself which blocks us from being able to live healthier and happier lives with more freedom and time is key to creating a sustainable world and that we should push for modern lifestyles which are compatible with a sustainable society that is not based on working and consuming to excess but instead having the time to adopt self care practices and more community harmony in rebuilding our societies.
my concern from a sustainability perspective is that densely populated cities will require largescale interventions to make them sustainable and therefore their growth may pose an issue. we will require more than just green growth or even degrowth to resolve these issues and even migration from rural to urban environments such as in China and India puts a greater strain on energy and food consumption that was previously more sustainable in their rural regions. But rural regions tend to be more impoverished and this is a big motivator for people to move to the city. Global population growth itself is of most concern and conversely this could possibly be more easily dealt with in city regions with better health and education.
controlled borders are ethical in some sense because they can ensure that the people crossing them will have employment and a place to live once they arrive. Otherwise this may result in them becoming subject to poverty, homelessness and in some cases be in more danger than that which they have left or escaped from. Controlled borders not only protect the sovereignty of the country itself and the chaos that could be caused by open borders but can also protect immigrants from falling into a state of unsupported living. There is a case to be made that it is a necessary evil in some cases.
I would think that the utilitarian perspective for immigration does not suffice to take into account the multiple variables that are at work when considering the wellbeing of a collective and parts of a collective. Here I think deontology ascribes to the idea that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, to quote aristotle. It is at the intersection or order and disorder. Perhaps in an ideal world where all countries had sustainable societies whose growth was kept under control and the adequate resources and services to maintain peace within it’s own borders and there were no tensions between nations, uncontrolled borders could work. But with the deep inequalities between countries across the world and even in neighbouring countries the consequences of open borders are too unpredictable and controlled borders can protect citizens from harm that could occur if immigration was not controlled.
This argument seems too simplistic to cover the wide range of issues associated with migration such as national sovereignty, identity, security and social quality of life. Existing open borders between countries tend to have sufficient commonalities among them such that migration between the countries is without much disruption to the economic, political or social order.
This puts into perspective the emphasis on the utilitarian argument taking into account the whole system by recognizing the betterment of the wellbeing of both nations or collectives in question subjected to the immigration request. An idea of interest to me is of flexible transnationality. With the consideration of the sustainability of aviation for tourism and moving between countries it is possible that unessential flights may be subject to steep restrictions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. To avert this outcome which would cut off large swathes of the world by making continents inaccessible to the majority of populations we could use superhighways outfitted with electric vehicle charging stations to cross borders through. This could be for seasonal nomadic movements of people to conserve energy for heating and cooling and conserve water. This might be the future for transnationality which if flexible can allow migrants to access the diversity of nations and cultures around the world.
In an ideal world i would say that the argument is convincing, but the world today is both more connected and fragmented than ever before. The increasing pressures of climate change create an urgency to safeguarding populations and to also address the likely issue of climate refugees. In the future even developed nations may find that they experience water stress and adverse climate conditions and weather events such that they will be unable to support new immigrants to their nations. The argument has merit if global sustainability is achieved but until then immigration will remain a contentious issue for most nations.
While utilitarianism is concerned only with the consequences of actions, deontology is concerned only with rights and duties.
yes i think the question of how a country controls its borders is a different ethical question. but having the actual right to control borders should be upheld and choose whether to and how it is done.
Professor David Miller, a political theorist at the University of Oxford, puts the point as follows:
The public culture of their country is something that people have an interest in controlling: they want to be able to shape the way that their nation develops, including the values that are contained in the public culture. They may not of course succeed: valued cultural features can be eroded by economic and other forces that evade political control. But they may certainly have good reason to try, and in particular to try to maintain cultural continuity over time, so that they can see themselves as the bearers of an identifiable cultural tradition that stretches backward historically. [1]
cultural preservation or the case of identity can be best described in some cases as nativist preservation. This is in part because of colonialism and true indigenous or natives of a region where the argument of cultural preservation can be made ambiguous by the question of who has the right to determine the true identity or culture a land should have. The nativist term brings into the perspective the idea that long established majorities in a region that have laid claim to a swathe of land as their own are upheld and respected as their right to defend their nativist identity and culture.
Yes, i find the argument of cultural preservation convincing when framed as a nativist identity concern. The fears of a majority being marginalized due to higher birth rates of immigrating individuals is an issue of concern to many which has become a dominating theme and headline in the news over recent years. Globally we also suffer from an overpopulation issue and i suspect that interventions to stabilise birth rates to limit energy and resource consumption as we transition to a sustainable planet, will be able to facilitate the type of cultural or nativist identity preservation that is of clear importance to many a nations’ people.
I answered the question that i do find the cultural preservation argument convincing. I base my judgements on the global events of recent history and my own view of the deeply embedded cultural values that are developed as we grow up surrounded by people with similar values. These gaps between cultural identities are perhaps too large to bridge which is why we see so much segregation of intercultural identities in cosmopolitan countries like the UK and the USA. This is not to say that intercultural mixing is not a viable population demographic makeup as we see successful integration of the majority of cultures in huge cosmopolitan cities like London. But i believe it is the fear of marginalization of nativist populations that fuels the issue due to differences in birth rates of immigrants and nativists. There is a statistic which claims that it takes just a 30% minority to sway the majority into a new regime whether it be about making a decision or changing the status quo. We see this figure of 30% ethnicity currently being approached or surpassed in some UK regions such as Birmingham.
1. Examples in history and recent events relating to cultural identity preservation have demonstrated a clear trend in the nature of the human condition which in many cases sees groups of different cultures as a threat to their own cultural identity. In the worst outcomes due to this issue we see inequalities, racial tensions and even genocide. To name a few, the Jewish oppression and holocaust by Nazi Germany; the uighyrs’ (who unsuccessfully claimed independence from China in 1949) oppression and subsequent treatment deemed by many international observers as genocide; the black lives matter movement in response to the inordinate number or police shootings of African Americans; the neo nazi movement which has resulted in mass shootings like the New Zealand Mosque tragedy, plus many more. Controlled borders can help prevent such atrocities.
2. Nativist cultures have demonstrated clear resistance to immigration once it goes beyond a certain point where it becomes noticeable that new cultures are emerging and are perhaps less able to integrate, which to some view as a dilution of their own culture. Some view it as enriching.
3. Yes
4. Most developed countries accept asylum seekers.
The argument concerns state benefits such as welfare payments, health insurance and public services.
Scandinavian countries, for example, have high taxation rates to fund significant state benefits. So, if they opened their borders, large numbers of people would soon settle there to take advantage of the benefits. But this is problematic for two reasons:
First, the arriving immigrants have not (yet) paid any tax, and so it is unfair for them to have access to state benefits.
Second, the arriving immigrants may flood the system, causing it to break down completely.
We can state the argument as follows.
In certain countries, significant state benefits are funded through high taxation.
If there were open borders, many people would immigrate to take advantage of these benefits.
This is a problem because:
The immigrants didn’t fund the benefits, so don’t have the right to access them.
Given the number of immigrants, the benefits system may break down, a seriously bad consequence for all.
Therefore, in such countries, controlled borders are ethical.
This is a sound argument and a genuine concern for the stability of the economy and treasury of any country with available state benefits. It shows why immigration, when controlled, can be a protective policy for a country’s best interests. But from the utilitarian perspective as previously mentioned, by selecting a higher proportion of skilled workers for immigration such as doctors and engineers this can negatively affect the countries from which immigrants are choosing to leave. So, the consequences of this argument effects both the individuals choice of country to immigrate to, as well as their country of origin depending upon their previous contribution to the labour force there.
This debate will become ever more important with the effects of the climate emergency creating more climate refugees in the future. All nations may suffer from climate change related weather changes, but they will all occur on different timelines. By accepting the immigration of large amounts of climate refugees early on it may become a more desperate situation when the country saving people from the effects of climate change itself becomes threatened in its capacity to protect its population from climate change. It must be a decision based on long term projections and a focus must be made on adapting to, becoming resilient to, as well as mitigating climate change so that the arguments about taxation, state benefits and the rights to security and healthcare are well considered and a pragmatic approach with foresight is used.
Yes, i think controlled borders are a good measure to take because the inequalities of countries globally, especially during the unfolding climate crisis, allows a country to maintain its strength and ability to manage its society as well as protect countries that could suffer from emigrants causing a “brain drain” on their own country. With climate change occurring, requiring particularly developed countries with the greatest capacity to act, these countries must maintain their ability to protect not just their own citizens from the crisis but take actions to mitigate the dangers to countries less capable of adapting to climate change.
Greta lays out the real climate emergency in stark view of our inaction to prevent these outcomes. She critically evaluates the inadequacy of our political structures and defers to the scientists that are unequivocal in their assertions that anthropogenic climate change will have dire consequences to the planet by 2030 and this leaves very little time to act. The types of small-scale actions politicians and policy influencers are currently offering to resolve this issue are nowhere near strong enough to prevent a calamity of global proportion. Greta is absolutely right that it is the young who will not only suffer the worst consequences of inaction, but they are also unequipped and are unable to influence the direction of decision makers with a right to vote. The tone of her argument is not just about an injustice but also of the fear of not just the young, but that all should feel about this emergency and there has been a failing of the media and our institutions to convey this emergency clearly enough to move people to a call for adequate action. Her speech is moving because extinction of life on earth whilst possessing the agency to prevent it is a disparaging prospect we should attempt to avoid
Climate change affects not just ourselves but those who:
exist far away from each of us (spatial dispersion)
will exist a long time after us (temporal dispersion).
Who exactly is morally responsible? Particularly those who knew of the dangers and the science and were in a capacity to avert our course towards collapse, but ignored the issue because it was inconvenient for them at the time.
Do you and I have duties to future generations? I believe so yes, i believe that one purpose and meaning of life is to prevent suffering. Inaction on climate change would create untold suffering so it is our moral duty to prevent such suffering where possible.
Who should pay for climate change, and how much? Developed nations that have the greatest capacity to mitigate climate change should make the largest contributions especially since in most cases we became developed nations at the expense of not just future generations of undeveloped nations but also previous and existing populations through corrupt exploitation.
Should we care more about the continuation of humanity? We should care more about preventing the suffering of future humanity and this should mean allowing a continuation of humanity in a sustainable and controlled way.
What is presented is a very dystopian vision of the future which is not what it has to be like. In fact, i believe our existing societal structure is a dystopian one where people are uninformed, misinformed and forced into a labour market which, if living in a developed country, we become employees of a company which in most cases exploits us to generate massive profits for the shareholders and we work 40 hour work weeks and are encouraged to indulge in a consumerist society that makes us sick with high fat, sugar, salt and processed diets to cope with the suffocating reality of dealing with all the responsibilities that come with a modern lifestyle of supporting a family and keeping up with the Joneses. Life should be focussed around our wellbeing and the brain chemicals we generate from our actions such as serotonin by socialising and belonging to a community, oxytocin by being close to loved ones and dopamine by working towards progress for ourselves rather than basing our success on our progress in a company that rewards us with cash or power. My diet was plant based for 3 years.
I hope to focus my sustainability research on fluorinated gases such as cfc’s hcfc’s, pfc’s and other dangerous substances like sulfur hexafluoride which is the gas used at scale with the highest global warming potential. It is used in electric substations mainly as it is an inert gas that can prevent electrical arcing and subsequent fires and explosions. It, just like the fluorinated refrigerants, leaks from the technology that it is used in and it is lifted into the upper atmosphere via winds that mix these potent greenhouse gases and some of them have lifetimes of thousands of years. Compared to carbon dioxide and methane which have atmospheric lifetimes of a hundred of 12 years respectively, these gases have the potential to exacerbate climate change if left as strictly unregulated as they are now. The Montreal protocol and the later Kigali amendment to the protocol seeks to control these substances but a large contributor of these emissions, the USA, is as yet to sign and ratify the Kigali amendment. President Joe Biden has promised to sign the treaty within his first 100 days of office. But i still believe the measures do not go far enough and I am working on hopefully better solutions.
What would be the right or just way to distribute the burden of climate change mitigation and adaptation? Every nation and person has a duty to mitigate climate change and help their communities build resilience to and adapt to the future effects it will experience. This distribution between nations and individuals should be made according to their capacity to do so.
What, if any, are our obligations to future generations? NASA has in a recently published paper confirmed how much humans are responsible for climate change and it is with great certainty this is now widely accepted. We are responsible to minimise the suffering they may experience as a result from climate change and we may invoke the maxim of treat others in a way you expect to be treated. Therefore, we could use the perspective of being in the position of future generations and take their view that current day humanity should have acted as best it could to prevent their suffering.
NASA has now provided published evidence of how much humans are responsible for climate change. This was widely shared across recent media in April 2021. This comes after decades of attempts of scientists to convince people that this is indeed true which is the converse view in the climate dialectic of climate change deniers. Climate deniers still exist but with widespread information disseminated by respected organisations such as NASA that have studied this phenomena for decades, this should quell the misinformation about climate science.
David makes the valid point that climate science is a well-developed multidisciplinary science which requires the rigorous understanding of physics to determine the scientific bases for its conclusions. This pertains to the mitigation issue in relation to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on the greenhouse effect which anthropogenic activities have exacerbated. What is less certain is how to adapt to these issues which requires other multidisciplinary sciences, especially the humanities and social science which are now coming together for climate change under the umbrella science of sustainability. The question of whether climate change is human caused is almost now completely resolved and evident that it is true that humans activities have caused this climate change as concluded by the recent paper from NASA in April 2021. Myself as a physicist by training and now a sustainability MSc student, i understand very well what David has said here and i can see that sustainability as a multidisciplinary subject is still in early stages of developing enough efficacy to deal with the issue.
The commons such as land and soil, waterways, oceans, the atmosphere, carbon sinks like rainforests are all vital to supporting not just local communities but can have global consequences for civilization. By my determination, i would say that the four most pressing issues for conservation are those of the atmosphere, stabilizing global population to meet the global carrying capacity, ensuring the environment protects the fertility of human beings such that safe reproduction is possible and the protection of ecosystems that support life and allow for agriculture. These are all interlinked systems that are at threat from a tragedy of the commons scenario such as polluting the land, air and sea which could lead to illness and reduced fertility aswell as remove these ecosystem services from supporting the population. Communities, if allowed, will act to support their families without thought about the longterm consequences for the capacity of the commons to support themselves in the long run and those of future generations. The ethical argument should fall on governing bodies to make necessary interventions to preserve the commons which is in the interest of everyone.
I take the view that the intergenerational responsibilities of addressing climate change are not as discrete as this argument describes but are much more interconnected because the process at some point is going to affect different generations at the same time if the path of inaction is taken. There is a blurring of the outcomes of the older generations and the younger which is being seen now as the voice of the youth expresses their fear and anger to older generations that have failed to act effectively to this threat. The idea of coercive institutions to protect the environment from climate change is perhaps better framed by an ecocide law where the polluter must pay and not only when they are charged by a community effected by the pollution, but the government should recognise these activities as harmful and automatically intervene to stop such activities. Polly Higgins was instrumental in developing an ecocide law framework, but this has yet to be adopted and it may prove vital to enforce a meaningful response to the dangers of humans using resources and ecosystems carelessly.
Yes, we have a moral obligation not just for future generations, but generations that exist now. The science is showing the potential for abrupt climate change if we do not take enough action now. This perhaps negates this argument about future generations, because in this argument, we are the future generations of this argument, perhaps for anyone younger than 75 years old. The changes that can occur in the climate can happen rapidly and from my study of the science i do believe it is possible that a transition from a relatively stable civilization to one which is dramatically negatively impacted by climate change can occur in as short a period as just five years. We owe it to ourselves to limit the suffering and mitigate, adapt to, become resilient to, and safeguard our populations from climate change. It is true that younger generations will be most affected since they will have to transition to a new operating structure of civilization with little experience of a former anthropocene era but also without knowledge of what the world was like prior to the communications technology revolution. Sacrifices are to be made by all but these mean different things to different generations.
The argument James makes is very valid in that global ethics possesses temporal dispersion. I would also take the view that the issue of climate change being framed as one of importance to future generations is somewhat misleading because the accelerating rate of change is also likely to effect not just future generations but also younger generations. I would argue that those under the age of 75 could be affected by climate change in many different ways but those who are younger will suffer from having to adapt to a world which older generations did not transition to earlier and enjoyed the comforts of not having to transform their lifestyles, even if these transformations may have in fact increased their quality of life. A view could be taken that these intergenerational inequalities have both valencies of younger generations benefitting from such transformations such that they won’t have to live the lifestyle of older generations which some perceive as being a better alternative to the transformations required, as well as older generations having missed out by not transforming to a society that in being sustainable, it serves the wellbeing of all generations.
This argument seems to be semantic and whether person A or person B are different people is irrelevant to the fact that both person A and person B have the same human rights. This is an argument with sound logic and it is true in stating that by adopting different policies such as for energy or climate policy would change the outcome of whether person A or B is born in the future.
Polluter pays principle: those who have done the polluting should pay. Why should polluters pay? Because they have caused the harms done to our climate.
Beneficiary pays principle: those who have benefited from past pollution should pay. Why? Even if they have not themselves caused the pollution, they have benefitted from harms done to our climate.
Ability to pay principle: those who can pay, who have sufficient funds, should pay. Why? Regardless of whether they have caused or benefitted from the harm done to the climate, they are most able to pay for climate change.
A mixed principle of all three does seem the most ethical and efficacious argument to determine how to fund the interventions for repairing damage done to ecosystems and to protect humanity from climate change. The precautionary principle is quoted by some as implying that the polluter should pay. This mixed attribution method for who should pay is more logical and ethical and should be incorporated into an updated precautionary principle. The precautionary principle’s main argument is that if there is a perceivable threat that we should not use the lack of full scientific data to assess the threat as a reason to delay action on such a threat.
I do believe this argument is at play within the current inaction on climate change. Those that are in power such as leaders of government and business are more often than not, those in their older years, with many aged over 70 years old, a past example being Donald Trump. Research into the future orientation of an individual show that people make decisions about their current actions with a future in mind that can be motivated by a persons hopes and fears. If an older person, who perceives their deaths as occurring in the not-too-distant future, they are more likely to care more about the present rather than the future as they see no future for themselves as they may die within a decade or less. It should be our duty to recognise this facet of the human condition and ensure that power is not concentrated in the hands of just the older generations who may be wiser but may also be more self-centred in their desires for a world that suits them. It is also noted that as people get older, they often become resistant to change. Another argument which is said to motivate a person’s actions is the question “what is in it for me?”. We should not underestimate the self-centred nature of humanity.
As a 35-year-old human being living in a developed nation that is perhaps more protected from the initial effects of climate change geographically, temporally and infrastructurally, I still feel a strong urgency for agency in tackling climate change. The idea of there being no “afterlife” is abhorrent to me. Not just because we then erase all of human history but we allow younger generations to fall into a despair of climate threats that if not addressed carefully could create social, political and economic collapses or tyranny. Also, we then do an injustice to all the struggles that our past ancestors have endured to live through incredibly tough periods without the luxuries we so take for granted such as central heating, medicine, knowledge about personal health and so much more. We owe it not to just ourselves, but also younger and future generations as well as past generations that will all, and have done so, made sacrifices to survive.
yes, i think we have ethical obligations to future generations but i also feel strongly that this question is becoming somewhat outdated because i think these future generations we speak of are essentially already here. Of course, there will still be people being born every day that will form this future generations contingent but the use of the term is misleading in making the case that it will only be those who have not yet been born that will be most negatively impacted by climate change. The negative impacts could be equally as bad for people already alive to those that are yet to be born. This distinction should be made in the intergenerational dialectic and the future generations argument should be used sparingly because just as the climate projections into the future of 2050 and 2100, it distorts the potential perception of the timescales of these events. I take the view, as a sustainability MSc student, that these future generations we should be talking about are already here and that this climate emergency is rapidly taking place before our very eyes. We owe it to ourselves and to future generations to change the course of our destiny as a civilization and avert suffering.
[Assignment from an open university short course called Global Ethics: An introduction. I passed. Hopefully along with a masters in sustainability will be my ticket onto a global ethics PhD]
This video shows that industrialised models of meat production are an environmental disaster now. If we try to expand meat production for an 8- or 9-billion-person population, it would become an unthinkable disaster. It makes the claim that humans have an over addiction to meat. This exacerbates climate change (CC) from the greenhouse gases (GHGs) industrial scale meat production creates. Meat consumption has quadrupled since the 1960s and we currently slaughter 3 billion animals per year for meat. To do this we use 70% of arable land for animal agriculture which is about one third of the total global land surface. To feed a population of 8 billion by 2024, or 9 billion people in 2050, using this production model is unfeasible because there wouldn’t be enough land, water or the atmospheric capacity to absorb the associated GHG emissions sustainably without causing dangerous climate damage.
Cultivating the crops for these concentrated animal feeding operations requires so much water that it is pushing water sources, such as the Ogallala aquifer, to dangerous lows. Farmers are struggling to even cultivate crops for human consumption by having to pump water from rapidly depleting ground water sources as the water table continues to plummet. Droughts in California in 2015 required 12 trillion gallons of water reservoirs to replenish the dangerously low water levels. The effects of water scarcity in Sao Paulo had caused riots. The deforestation of the Amazon is particularly dangerous since 70% of South America’s irrigation comes from the ecosystem services supplied by the Amazon.
I have chosen this example because our global water consumption and dietary consumption habits are unsustainable for a growing population in the current climate emergency.
There are several ethical challenges posed which are those of the tragedy of the commons such as water overconsumption; soil degradation from intensive farming; polluting the oceans from biogeochemical flows from excessive fertilizer use; atmospheric pollution by industrialized agriculture releasing inordinate amounts of GHG’s such as carbon dioxide (CO2); methane and nitrous oxide; the deforestation of our most vital carbon sinks for livestock pastures which previously captured and stored CO2 via photosynthesis; the externalities of these operations not being subject to a true-cost accounting such as buying corn silage below the cost of production which is subsidised by the water for production. These externalities pass the cost onto the public by creating the potential for future water and food insecurity. It is a short-term business model with no thought for the future.
Addressing these issues require governments, business, and consumers to make ethical choices and implement policies that are environment preserving. This would require a mixture of true-cost accounting business models, making the polluter pay, reducing our proportion of animal products in our diets, water conservation, reducing birth rates to prevent overpopulation and ultimately implementing a very strong mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategy to prepare for climate change.
[elective essay, incomplete, without references, not much structure but useful]
In creating large food halls and food kitchens by converting retail parks, industrial estates and shopping centres and highstreets, we can incorporate places which not only provide healthy meals but also provide access to food and personal essential supplies for residential storage, use and consumption. These infrastructures with existing car parking could serve local communities that are nearby so walking and cycling to these hubs of essential services is possible with waiting areas outfitted with clean cooling and clean heating which could be built on existing car parking areas. Meals and supplies could also be made available with an electric vehicle drive -thru which could allow for provisions and deliveries made to a larger community from those that live farther away. A wide range of services can be provided at these community hubs such as health services and education which together, with the provision of plant-rich meals, this strategy can achieve the four top objectives of Project Drawdown (PD) which can potentially create the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions (Hawken,ref?). These are food waste; health and education (promotes lower birth rates and population size stabilization); plant-rich diets; and refrigerant management (RM) as shown in table 1.
A list of PD’s solutions which food hubs can facilitate their introduction into the design of our actions to mitigate, adapt to, and be resilient to CC are given in table 1. The associated CO2 equivalent GHG emissions reductions are given for each intervention as a range between two scenarios, with scenario 1 in line with a 2 degree C temperature rise by 2100 and scenario 2 in line with a 1.5 degree C rise by 2100. The implementation of food hubs with an integrated clean cold chains (CCC) and clean heating will allow society a greater likelihood of achieving the ambitious targets set by scenario 2. These figures are based on projected global emissions and therefore will differ significantly on the ecological, economic, political, and social context where they are introduced.
This strategy of centralizing food storage (particularly refrigerated goods), preparation, cooking and consumption increases the efficiency of various other systems in society. Alternative refrigerants such as ammonia and carbon dioxide (CO2) with low global warming potentials (GWPs) and which are not ozone depleting substances (ODSs) could be used in large cold stores for food to be cooked daily and to be supplied to citizens. To further enable the efficacy of centralised refrigeration, the use of new technologies which draw CO2 from the atmosphere could be used as a source of the refrigerant and not just lowering GHG emissions but also reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The large scale of refrigeration and cooling for such an operation would be required to create a large enough impact to mitigate climate change (CC). A phrase used recently is that being alive at this time of human history gives people “front row seats” to such a remarkable, yet dangerous period where civilizations’ past actions have become so significant so as to alter the very planet we live on. These food hubs with clean cooled and heated waiting areas literally provide these very seats for humans to witness the unfolding events of human induced CC. With the terrifying consequences of inaction on CC, this large-scale intervention can provide safety for communities that engage the issue and build resilience to outcomes such as intermittent energy supply due to extreme weather events or decisions by national leaders to limit energy distribution so that its consumption is lowered to drastically reduce GHG emissions.
Table 1: A list of solutions given in PD which food hubs can facilitate their implementation and their corresponding GHG emissions reduction potentials given as Gigatons of CO2 equivalent reduction/sequestered. Source: (Hawken,ref?)
Solution
Grouping
Scenario 1~
Scenario 2~
Reduced Food waste
Food supply chain and lifecycle
87
95
Health and education
Population size and health
85
85
Plant-rich diets
Food supply chain and lifecycle
65
92
Refrigerant management
Food supply chain and lifecycle
58
58
Tropical-forest restoration
Land sinks
54
85
Onshore wind turbines
Energy supply and transport
47
148
Alternative refrigerants
Food supply chain and lifecycle
44
51
Utility-scale solar photovoltaics
Energy supply and transport
42
119
Improved clean cookstoves
Food supply chain and lifecycle
31
73
Distributed solar voltaics
Energy supply and transport
28
69
Silvopasture
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
27
42
Peatland protection and rewetting
Land sinks
26
42
Tree plantations (on degraded land)
Land sinks
22
34
Temperate forest restoration
Land sinks
19
28
Concentrated solar power
Energy supply and transport
19
24
Insulation
Clean heating and buildings
17
19
Managed grazing
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
16
26
Led lighting
Clean heating and buildings
16
18
Perennial staple crops
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
15
31
Tree intercropping
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
15
24
Regenerative annual cropping
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
15
22
Conservation agriculture
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
13
9
Abandoned farmland restoration
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
12
20
Electric cars
Energy supply and transport
12
16
Multistrata agroforestry
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
11
20
Offshore wind turbines
Energy supply and transport
10
11
Methane digesters
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
10
6
Improved rice production
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
9
14
Indigenous peoples’ forest tenure
Land sinks
9
13
Bamboo production
Land sinks
8
21
Alternative cement
Clean heating and buildings
8
16
Hybrid cars
Energy supply and transport
8
16
Carpooling
Energy supply and transport
8
4
Public transit
Energy supply and transport
8
23
District heating
Clean heating and buildings
6
10
Geothermal power
Clean heating and buildings
6
9
Forest protection
Land sinks
6
9
Recycling
Food supply chain and lifecycle
6
6
Biogas for cooking
Food supply chain and lifecycle
5
10
Efficient trucks
Food supply chain and lifecycle
5
10
Efficient ocean shipping
Food supply chain and lifecycle
4
6
High efficiency heat pumps
Clean heating and buildings
4
9
Perennial biomass production
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
4
7
Solar hot water
Clean heating and buildings
4
14
Grassland protection
Land sinks
3
4
System of rice intensification
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
3
4
Nuclear power
Energy supply and transport
3
3
Bicycle infrastructure
Energy supply and transport
3
7
Biomass power
Energy supply and transport
3
4
Nutrient management
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
2
12
Biochar production
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
2
4
Landfill methane capture
Food supply chain and lifecycle
2
-1.6
Composting
Food supply chain and lifecycle
2
3
Waste-to-energy
Clean heating and buildings
2
3
Small hydropower
Energy supply and transport
2
3
Walkable cities
Energy supply and transport
1
5
Sustainable intensification for smallholders
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
1
1
Electric bicycles
Energy supply and transport
1
4
High speed rail
Energy supply and transport
1
4
Farm irrigation efficiency
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
1
2
Recycled paper
Food supply chain and lifecycle
1
2
Telepresence
Energy supply and transport
1
4
Coastal wetland protection
Land sinks
1
1
Coastal wetland Restoration
Land sinks
1
1
Water distribution efficiency
Water conservation
1
1
Green and cool roofs
Clean heating and buildings
1
1
Electric trains
Energy supply and transport
0.1
0.65
Micro wind turbines
Energy supply and transport
0.09
0.13
Key: Yellow – Food supply chain and lifecycle. Grey – Population size and health. Green – Land sinks. Light Blue – Energy supply and transport. Pink – Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). Red – Clean heating and buildings. Dark Blue – Water conservation.[cant find how to highlight in wordpress]
Taking the groupings of the solutions and noting similarities to some groupings we can define several strategy types with associated CO2 equivalent emissions savings as shown in table 2:
Table 2: The total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions reductions/sequestered by each main category from project drawdown
1.Refrigerant management and Alternative Refrigerants
102
109
2. Food supply chain and lifecycle
208
296
1. + 2. (Refrigerants + Food) =
310
405
3. Energy supply and transport
196
464
4. Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)
152
240
5. Land sinks
149
387
4. + 5. (AFOLU + Land Sinks) =
301
627
6. Population (health and education)
85
85
7. Clean heating and buildings
64
99
The use of onshore wind turbines is number 6 in PD’s list of solutions. The rollout of turbines would be advantageous to supply electricity for the food hubs as well as utility scale photovoltaics on the roofs of these complexes. A more secure supply would be required such as connection to nuclear electricity supply or the new opportunities that small modular nuclear reactors present to the energy generation sector. Refrigeration is one of the few processes that society depends upon which requires a constant supply of electricity. Therefore, by centralizing its function in society and protecting it with secure energy sources we can reduce our dependency on decentralised refrigeration in supermarkets and homes. Food hubs with large food cold stores could order and store produce to be delivered daily such that food is not stored for long before it is used for cooking and consumption.
The introduction of clean cold chains (CCCs) removes steps from our existing cold chains and makes the stages of cooling more efficient and more environmentally friendly. New technologies have been developed and tested in the food transport sector such as the Dearman engine for transport refrigeration units (TRUs) that use liquid air (Liquid air energy network,2014). These CCCs make use of wasted heat energy from the regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to create liquid nitrogen for use as a refrigerant in TRUs (Image 1). These clean TRUs have been tested for home delivery by UK supermarket chain Sainsburys (ref) and this type of use of waste energy is listed as number 44 and 57 of efficient trucks and for the use of waste heat in PD’s solution table, respectively.
Image 1: Recycling LNG waste cold to provide clean cold chain cooling Source: (Dearman,ref?)
The food by lifecycle across the supply chain is shown in image 2. The GHG emissions from all stages of the supply chain is shown for different foodstuffs as a summation of emissions from land use change for farming, farming itself, animal feed, processing, transport, retail, and packaging. The solutions relating to the food supply chain and lifecycle are highlighted in yellow in table 1. Land use change includes deforestation for farmland mainly for grazing cattle as well as non-farming purposes. The halting of these actions and instead changing our current use of these land carbon sinks are highlighted in table 1 as the green items in the list. Food hubs can act as a training centre and deploy teams in electric vehicles to carry out restoration and protection projects for land carbon sinks. Those stages of the farming process as analysed by PD of which food hubs can facilitate are highlighted in pink. Food hubs facilitate these processes of land use change and farming by reducing food waste and thus reducing the need for higher yields from the farming sector. This means farmers can maintain or reduce yields and focus on carrying out more sustainable farming practices.
Image 2: GHG emissions across the food supply chain. Source (ref?)
It has been found that the choice of animal feed can alter the GHG emissions from ruminants (Ref?) in the form of belching and flatulence. A recent discovery is that by incorporating a species of seaweed known as Asparagopis Toxifarmis into beef cattle feed can reduce cattle methane emissions by up to 90% (ref?). The food lifecycle stages of processing, transport, retail, and packaging shown in image 2 can be addressed by clean cold food hubs as well as the other stages of refrigeration, recycling, food cooking and food waste (which is the second highest impact PD solution, second to combined RM and alternative refrigerants). By ordering and selecting foods for specific, planned, plant-rich food meals in food halls this centralised storage and refrigeration would be more energy efficient and lower food waste and allow a full and complete recycling of packaging, which itself would be reduced. The packaging of food accounts for 5% of GHG emissions in the global food supply chain (Ref?). Food hubs, halls and kitchens could dramatically reduce this figure as well as allow for the complete recycling of packaging which reduces strain on household waste collection. They can also allow for a more complete composting of foodstuffs as employees that prepare foods and consumers put waste foodstuffs into onsite food waste bins. Retail food outlets would sell a lower quantity of stock which requires expensive and often unrecyclable packaging to target consumers. The introduction of food hubs for consumer procurement and onsite consumption adds a new step in the food supply chain which replaces part of the sector provided by large supermarket chains and lowers home food storage needs and thus wastage.
As opposed to supermarkets which have rows of refrigeration units, most commonly multiplex rack systems, the food hubs could stack refrigerators vertically along rows that staff can access when stock is requested for pickup or for use in the food kitchens. This vertical stacking is a more efficient use of space than supermarket refrigerators that are designed for consumer safety in mind. Alternatively large, refrigerated rooms with shelving to store stock would be more efficient than supermarket refrigerated display cases. This type of stock pickup process described could be similar to the click and collect style of ordering or by filling in a form by pencil and paper as a system like that used in retail outlets such as Argos in the UK.
Globally, in 2006, there were 530,000 supermarkets containing more than 546,000 metric tons of refrigerants. 60% of refrigeration in the commercial sector uses the multiplex rack system, 33% for condensing unit systems and 7% for standalone or self-contained refrigeration systems (Ref?). Multiplex rack systems consist of racks of multiple compressors typically in an operation room which are linked to multiple display cases in the sales area using extensive piping. Standalone systems integrate all refrigerating components within their structures which account for 32 million units worldwide and an additional 20.5 million vending machines (ref?). By using alternative modes of access to refrigerated goods we can limit the GHG emissions associated with the manufacture, sale and transport of refrigerators which cuts the embodied energy required for their production and sale and their subsequent energy usage once in operation. The refrigerator sector globally is made up of 25% commercial refrigeration in the developed world, 15 % of commercial refrigeration in the developing world and 60% other refrigeration and air conditioning. The idea of community cooling hubs could make use of the extensive alternative refrigerants powered cooling systems through ventilation ducts to cool waiting areas on hot days and other spaces such as onsite computer server rooms and internet cafes for example.
Another example of using waste-to-energy would use the incineration of high GWP refrigerants (>2500?) as we phase out their usage in supermarkets, residential settings and air conditioners used in offices as we switch to a higher proportion of workers working from home via telepresence. There is an estimated 5687 kT of ozone depleting substances as refrigerants globally with 3070 kT in non-article 5 countries of the Montreal Protocol (eg. The EU), 2617 kT from article 5 countries (eg. India) with China having 1,200 kT of ODS alone. The waste heat used to incinerate refrigerants could be incorporated into district heating alongside geothermal and biomass sources which alone could reduce GHG emissions estimated at a possible 6-10 Gigatons of CO2 equivalent reduction in PD. Food hubs could also have their own onsite district heating source for use throughout the complex on cold days and provide the surrounding community with district heating. Items highlighted in red in table 1 pertain to clean heating and building solutions. As households in an urban environment, we all share a water, gas and electricity supply, so why not share a heat supply also?
Clean heating can include the energy used for cooking and hot water for bathing and washing dishes and utensils. There is also the embodied energy of all our personal household items such as ovens, microwaves, dishwashers, food appliances (eg. Blenders and food processors) and the utensils used in preparation and eating food. If we as households did not require such a numerous number of items related to food to prepare, cook, consume, clean, and ultimately replace multiple times within a lifetime; a large amount of energy would be saved if we also take into account the energy that companies use to sell all these goods in retail outlets and the creation, packaging and transport of goods for consumers.
The idea of food hubs and the threat of residential intermittent energy supply will encourage the uptake of residential renewable sources of energy such as solar and small wind turbines. The uptake of electric vehicles for those who have the financial capital to invest in them could increase for homes that want to travel to food hubs, halls and kitchens as petrochemical reliant combustion engines are phased out. Incentives to remove refrigerants from residential settings (which would be ineffective for refrigeration of food in the eventuality of intermittent energy supply) could be created in the form of allowing removal of high GWP refrigerants from home appliances to be used in incineration, or the entire appliances taken in exchange for a reduced cost of installing residential renewables. If residents are healthy and fit enough to travel to nearby food hubs, halls and kitchens they could offer their combustion engine vehicles for exchange of reduced cost home renewables. These cars can be retrofitted into electric vehicles for a minority and the rest would likely be recycled and scrapped at a rate feasible for the operation capacity. The green initiatives associated with this type of urban living are described in PD and highlighted in table 1 as the light blue solutions.
Image 3: The food energy water nexus and the interdependencies between each sector
The food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus (shown in image 3) is embedded within the set of solutions given by PD and can be facilitated by the creation and use of food hubs, halls and kitchens. The solutions in table 1 highlighted in light blue and red are those pertaining most to energy whilst those highlighted in yellow, green, and pink pertain to food. The single items in grey and dark blue of education and health and water distribution efficiency, respectively, correspond to population size and water availability. Water conservation is inherent in many of these solutions as an indirect consequence of actions taken. Outside of these solutions there is a more direct way of water management which is by moving large numbers of people seasonally so that clean cooling and clean heating is also emphasised. The idea of clean cooling and clean heating is achieved directly with three multiplicative factors that are (1.) the reduction in the need for cooling/heating, (2.) increased efficiency and (3.) use low carbon electricity to supply these systems. These factors are multiplicative and not additive, so the larger the change in the initial variable of demand, the larger the carbon emissions reductions that are achieved. If people are moved seasonally from cold regions during winter times to locations with a warmer climate the demand for heating is reduced. The same is true for moving people with hot climates during summertime to cooler regions to reduce the demand for cooling. These strategies are both tied into water conservation because during a hot summer in warm climes the water stress is more of a threat. If there were minimalist nomads across our continents that travelled seasonally to spend 6 months at a time away from home and ferried across renewable electricity supplied superhighways in electric vehicles such as existing fleets of cars, buses and coaches or high-speed trains. The type of people most suited to this voluntary action are those with fewer ties to a region keeping them there such as jobs or dependent family members. Students are a good candidate since they can also study via distance learning for many courses and the UK has 2.38 million students as of 2019 (ref?). Moving millions of people across continents would require temporary homes for them to live in and adequate food supply. With the likelihood of having to end tourist aviation due to the high burden of GHG emissions this activity creates, there would be a very large stock of empty tourist resorts. If instead of the usual seasonal use of these during summer months they were inhabited by minimalist nomads during winter and then make use of large-scale food facilities and create food hubs, halls and kitchens in the regions we could support these temporary populations. By monitoring water availability of regions, we could calculate how many nomads any region could accept at any one time and adapt to changing circumstances in the event of unpredictable weather events like drought and severe storms by moving populations around via the superhighways.
Across the board, food hubs, halls and kitchens are a more efficient and effective system of dealing with the task of feeding a high-density population and communities via a complete integration of the water, energy food nexus to our solutions.
This table shows a matrix with 2main axes of the quaternary civilization core components of Power, The human condition, Planetary Boundaries and Adaptation/Communication/Governance VS the 4 primary constraints for life on earth which are the Atmosphere, Overpopulation, Fertility – genetic integrity – ability to reproduce safely, Agriculture and Ecosystems. The pieces of the puzzle are not all correctly aligned or in the correct columns as they should share a commonality among them, but it will do for now as a basic foundation to work from.
Universal fundamental Components:
Valency
Positive (+)
Negative (-)
Neutral (0)
Either/Or (+/-) / Balanced
Primary Colours of Light
Red
Blue
Green
White/No Light
Universe components
Time
Space
Energy
Matter
Universal forces (standard model)
Strong force
Weak force
Electromagnetic
Gravity
States of matter
Solid
Liquid
Gas
Plasma
Polarities
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Transitioning
Physical Properties
Rigid
Viscous
Diffuse
Continual igniting/extinguishing
Reactionary Properties
Fixed (Resistant)
Mutable (Adaptive)
Steady (Indifferent)
Cardinal (Reactive)
Occupation of space
Distributed/Permeated/Saturated
Stationary (imperceptible slow movement)
Mobile
Movement/Immobile
Number of units
Numerous
Singular
Multiple
Increasing/Decreasing
State of spread or replication (information or microbial/plant/animal)
Ecclesiastical – Faith based principles and cohesion
Commodities
Wealth
Capital
Resources
Profit, gain, Investment, create/Gain, waste, divestment, destroy
Governance scales, function and modalities
Grassroots movements supply Basic needs of the system to persist (reproduction, population)
Middle Management carries out large scale operation and development
Top-Down governance ensures fundamental needs are met
Central Authorities -Delivers expert coordinating policy guidance/Experimental research – Drives transformation and new ways of operating the system – Coordinates communication between all levels at each scale
Cultural Types: Lewis Model
Linear Active
Multi Active
Reactive
Diplomacy/Anarchy
Distribution of Traditional civilization workforce
Primary sector – 64.5%
Secondary sector – 20%
Tertiary sector – 15.5%
Quaternary sector – Modern civilization (research and development)
Human collectives by scale
Communities (Towns, villages, hamlets – rural)
Cities
Countries or sovereign states
International Unions
SMART target setting
Timely
Specific/Measurable
Achievable
Realistic/Unrealistic
The Human Condition:
Human descriptors
Human nature
Human condition
Human experience
Human error or epiphany/revelation
Thought, emotion, action cycle
Feelings
Thoughts
Decisions
Positive or negative Action/Inaction
Inter-relational states between others and groups
Prejudice and Greed
Diplomacy and Cooperation
Sharing
Peace/ War and antagonistic
Brain chemicals
Dopamine and adrenaline
Serotonin
Oxytocin
Melatonin – sleep/ Cortisol – stress
Brain chemistry levels
Low access due to baseline dearth – depression, discontent
Adrenaline, excitement, adventure – Moderated activity to promote wellbeing
Adequate brain chemical balance – happiness, joy
Love – safety and security/ Fear – hatred
Brain chemistry experience and states
Excess – Addictions
Balanced stable brain chemistry
Increase of brain stimuli (sustainably moderated) and chemicals for support and to appease population
Balanced brain chemistry with additional support to maintain stability in adversity/Lack of brain chemicals – understimulated, stress, instability
Interrelation intervention types
Gain
Compromise – Pragmatism
Concession – loss, letting go
Balanced approach/ Stalemate, collapse of agreements
(hypothetical) Distribution of shared costs of a space in a shared condominium
Social Costs – 60% – Basic amenities in a apartment complex eg. Plumbing, Electrics, Hallways, Private Doors, Insulation, Plaster, Paint
Private Costs – 20% – Desirable amenities for long term private use eg. Fixtures, Lighting, Washing facilities, Windows, Refrigeration, Cooker, Carpets or Flooring, Crockery and cutlery
Communal Costs – 15% – Fundamental components of the complex such as the building itself eg. Land, Foundations, Bricks, Roof, Floors, Adequate space to sleep in, Door, Sanitation services
Personal/Voluntary Costs – 5% – Extraneous amenities that may change overtime eg. Tech, Material goods, Furniture, Redecoration
Societal state descriptors
Hedonism
Utopia
Controlled dystopia but humans preserved
Controlled state of equity among all/ Uncontrolled dystopia – tyranny
Ikigai (purpose)
Need for your actions in the world
A love and passion of what you do
Compensated for – your vocation
Affinity, skill, talent (acquired or natural)/No meaningful life purpose
Life roles
Mission
Passion
Vocation
Suitability for role
Planetary Boundaries:
4 most pressing issues for human survival
Atmosphere
Overpopulation
Fertility – genetic integrity – ability to reproduce safely
Agriculture and ecosystems
4 Basic tenets of ethical sustainability
2.Increase Efficiency
1. Reduce Demand
3. Make processes as sustainable as possible
4. Make processes as ethical as possible
4 basic needs for human survival
Clothing
Shelter
Food and Water
Warmth/Cooling
Planetary social actions
harm
protect
unconstructive inaction
Heal and regenerate/ Destroy to extinction
Earth elements
Earth
Water
Air
Fire
Resilience adaptive cycle
Collapse/Release
Conservation
Reorganisation
Growth/Exploitation
Responses to climate change
Sustainability
Mitigation
Deep and transformational adaptations
Resilience and safeguarding/Inaction or ineffective action
Macronutrients
Carbohydrates
Proteins
Fats
Sugars (refined)
Human macronutrient ratios (recommended)
60%
20%
15%
5%
Intermediate macros
68%
12%
11%
5%
Raw vegan 801010 diet
80%
10%
10%
0
Homeostasis
Balanced equilibrium
Moderation
Stability
Maintains existence/ Ceases to exist
Adaptation and Communication:
Human ideologies
Socialism (Social concerns)
Capitalism (Beneficiaries of profit from exchange, capital creation or other wealth creation)
Communism (Personal and communal concerns eg. family household)
Anarchism (Adaptation) – Large collective concerns, ranging from community to global scale)
Currrency and Wealth transformations/potentials?
68% existing wealth is TRANSFORMED into ecounits via a steadily increasing inflation rate on existing currencies until it’s worth is devalued into non existence. Requires investment into environmentally friendly profit making business models.
14% existing cash is TRANSFERRED into sustainable capitalist credits for uses such as air miles.
13% existing wealth is TAXED to be used for purposes of a neo-distributist ego-ethical model framework where nations and nation states pool natural resources and new infrastructure is built using this tax amongst the member states.
5% existing wealth is RETAINED as it is in it’s natural currency.
Tripartite theory of anarchy as international relations structure
Distribution of capabilities (surface structure)
Functional differentiation of units
Unit arrangement: Ordering principle
Anarchy/Adaptation (Deep structure)
Human governance
Executive
Judiciary
Legislative
Evolution: Autocracy and Fascism/Revolution or Expert Citizen democracy – Hive mind – Multilateral unions of governance structures – Communication
The 7P’s of concern
Political, Private and Public
Private
Philosophical and Personal
Peace, Planetary and Political
Primary academic disciplines of importance
Politics
Economics
Law
Sustainability: Sustainable International Governance (Global Civilization Science) Communication
System Intervention levels
Primary (Reduce executive [social] budget)
Secondary (Accrue International development fund to act internationally to prevent planetary disaster)
Tertiary (Increase legislative [communal] budget)
Quaternary (Remaining 5% of budget to fund experts and knowledgeable citizens to use anonymous deliberation in strategy forming using online network group decision support systems to devise transformational adaptations and novel societal systems to rescue humanity). Multilateral unions. Communication
Resolving conflict
Gossip, rumours, lies, conspiracy
Avoidance – Ignorance
Therapy – searching for solutions
Agreement/Feuding
Triple constraint model of project management
Scope and quality of outcome
Schedule
Resources and budget
Opportunities/Risks
Agency
Control
Influence
Exemplify
Existing state, Natural processes/Unknown unknowns, out of human control
Subjectivities
Who? (power)
Why? (human condition)
When, where, what (planetary boundaries)
How? Unknowns (Adaptation, communication)
Factors of Power
Control, Domination, Force, Cooperation
Leadership, Dominance, Strength in numbers
Trust, Decision making and Action
Morality/Immorality
Inter-relational tendencies between others and groups
The 1987 Montreal Protocol (MP) on substances that deplete the ozone layer is a legally binding international treaty implemented to phase out the production and consumption of substances that deplete ozone in the atmosphere. It built upon the framework designed by the 1985 Vienna convention for the protection of the ozone layer which developed the basis for international cooperation in preventing ozone depletion. The Vienna agreement and MP were signed in March 1985 and August 1987 respectively, both of which have made history as being the first universally ratified treaties by all United Nation (UN) states (UNEP,2021).
Context:
In 1971 a statement was made in the United States of America congress that ozone loss could be linked to increased skin cancer from increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure (McDonald,1971). This increased biologically harmful UV radiation exposure to humans was later confirmed as a threat of increasing skin cancer incidence (van der leun,1988;Nolan and Amanatidis,1995).
It was later discovered that halocarbons, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), caused destruction of atmospheric ozone (Molina and Rowland,1974) which informed scientific advice to protect ozone (Greenstone,1977). The first observations that described a loss of ozone in the Antarctic were made in 1984 (Farman, Gardiner and Shanklin,1985). These findings were confirmed from satellite data presented in 1985 (Bhartia, Heath and Flieg,1985).
The interventions taken to rectify this issue as enforced by the MP included replacing the use of such substances with much lower ozone depleting potentials (ODP). However, substitutes were later discovered to have very high global warming potentials (GWP) which accelerate climate change. Attempts to phase them out are addressed by the MP Kigali amendment (KA) (UNEP,2019) to include phasing out substances with high GWPs.
Interventions:
The MP’s roots can be argued to have invoked the precautionary principle (PP), albeit applied somewhat imperfectly, as the motivation to galvanise behaviour change (Farman,2001). The PP imposes upon humanity a duty of planetary care to wilfully inform and guide our global actions (Read & O’Riordan,2017). It directly calls into question the moral accountability of decisions that must be made collectively (Fernandez,2020). A central tenet of the PP is stated in article 15 of the Rio Declaration of environmental development, that a lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to protect the environment (United Nations,1992). Another inherent key principle therein is of prevention being better than cure. Table 1 gives more details of the PP’s approach to policymaking.
Table 1: Features of the precautionary principle as described from varying sources
Chapman,2012: Take action where there is a clear lack of evidence Don’t disregard evidence, open to different types than often the narrow view taken by risk assessment Consider the weight of evidence from different sources of which none may individually be conclusive Take into account the pros and cons of action and inaction
Farman,2001: The principle of prevention is better than cure Using the technology for increasing efficiency of resource use and preventing waste Safeguarding environmental zones by protection from alteration in the face of ignorance or uncertainty Sharing the burden of responsibility according to contribution and ability to pay Share regulatory activities between political and private bodies using accredited NGO’s to make the call for interventions Ensure the preservation of conditions on earth for future generations and ecosystems Make the polluter pay
Rio Declaration,1992: Article 15 “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by states according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation”
As an unanimously ratified treaty by all UN states, the MP acts at the public policy level which dictates protocols to be adhered to at the organizational level. The MP has had many amendments, the most recent being the KA of 2016 which places more stringent restrictions on the types of chemicals to be permissibly used. This latest amendment has been ratified by over 100 UN members with the notable exception of the United States of America (USA) (UNEP,2020). This status is due to be rectified as the recent announcement that the current USA president Joe Biden will ratify the treaty in his first one hundred days of office (The Whitehouse,2021). As outlined by the most recent edition of the MP, there are several chemicals with restrictions and exemptions placed upon their use. These are listed in table 2.
Table 2: List of chemicals controlled by the Montreal Protocol as of the last Kigali amendment
CFCs, halons, carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), methyl chloroform, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrobromofluorocarbons, methyl bromide, bromochloromethane and other fluorinated gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride (MP,2020).
The agreement provides a timeline for a phaseout of these chemicals with reasonable allowances for developing countries with an altered phaseout period. These measures were agreed in 1990 to be funded by a new Multilateral Fund for the implementation of the MP (MFMP) (Patlis,1992). The initial concern was to replace CFCs with new chemicals of lower ODP such as HFCs and HCFCs but these were later found to have high GWPs. In response, new substitutes were found such as hydrofluoroolefins to replace them which required yet further funding. The MP has been appraised as an effective global system intervention by many studies and described as a major success in preserving the ozone layer (Mader et al,2010) and substantially mitigating climate change (Goyal et al,2019).
Possible barriers and negative outcomes:
Funding such a large-scale global operation is an issue because it is impractical to offer open-ended funding for the monitoring and regulation of so many organisations involved in this complex supply chain (Farman,2001). This is exampled by recent anomalies in emissions measurements being higher than other reports had stated such as in the cases of CCl4 (Lunt et al,2018) and CFC-11 (Montzka et al,2018).
Using the MPs applied strategy assumes perhaps a fallacious belief in human ingenuity to safely use synthetic materials as a cumulative progression which can continue ad infinitum as inferred by the ‘human exemptionalism paradigm’ (Dunlap and Catton,1979). Addressing this concern are calls for a more ethics-based framework (Read,2017) and existential risk management approach (Spratt & Dunlop,2018) in reformulating sustainability to maintain the integrity of the PP as applied to planetary conservation.
Summary:
The MP presents a valuable lesson for humanity in how the PP can be successfully applied to global environmental problems. It has been effective in achieving its initial objectives accompanied with some unexpected failures. It is a clear example of a wicked problem in action by the interventions implemented having unintended consequences. The designing and funding of this global effort are of staggering difficulty therefore the attention and effort of all actors involved must continue at pace if not increase in capacity to secure the habitability of the planet. Alternatively, a different strategy placing ethics and existential threat as the primary considerations in system interventions may be more effective but may require shifts of global and national system structures.
References:
Bhartia, P.K. Heath, D.J. Fleig, A.F. (1985) Observation of anomalously small ozone densities in south polar stratosphere during October 1983 and 1984. Paper presented at the symposium on dynamics and remote sensing of the middLe atmosphere 5th scientific assembly, International association of geomagnetism and aeronomy, Prague, Czechoslovakia
Dunlap, R. E. Catton, W. R., Jr. 1979. Environmental sociology. Annual Review of Sociology, 5, 243-273.
Farman, J.C. Gardiner, G. Shanklin, J.D. (1985) Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx reaction. Nature, Vol 315 pp207-210
Farman, J. (2001) Halocarbons and the ozone layer and the precautionary principle. European Environmental Agency. Late lessons from early warnings the precautionary principle. Luxembourg office for official publications of the European Communities 1896-2000 pp76-83
Fernandez, P.D. (2020) Book review, Revisiting Hannah Arendt’s The Human Condition. Organization. 41(110 PP1580-1504
Greenstone, R. (1977) Protecting the ozone layer in the face of uncertainty. Interfaces. Vol 7. No.4
Lunt, M. F., Park, S., Li, S., Henne, S.,Manning, A. J., Ganesan, A. L., et al. (2018). Continued emissions of the ozone-depleting substance carbon tetrachloride from eastern Asia. Geophysical ResearchLetters, 45, 11,423–11,430.
McDonald, J. E. (1971) Relationship of skin cancer incidence to thickness of ozone layer. Congress. Rec, 117, 3493
Molina, M.J. Rowland, F.S. (1974) Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes. Chlorine atom-catalysed destruction of ozone. Nature Vol 810 pp279
Montzka, S.A., Geoff S. Dutton, Pengfei Yu, G.S. Ray, E. Portmann, R.W. Daniel, J.S. Kuijpers, L.
Hall, B.D. Mondeel, D. Siso, C. Nance, J.D. Rigby, M. Manning, A.J. Hu, L. Moore, F. Miller, B.R. & Elkins, J.W. (2018) An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11. Nature. Vol 557 pp.413-419
Patlis, M. (1992) The Multilateral Fund of the Montreal Protocol: A Prototype for Financial Mechanisms in Protecting the Global Environment. Cornell international law journal Vol. 25 Issue 1 Winter 1992 Article 5
Read, R. O’Riordan, T. (2017) The Precautionary PrinciplenUnder Fire, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 59:5, 4-15,
[Disclaimer]: This post seems like the worst piece of metaphysics and pseudo science ive ever posted. I just found the patterns curious and thought id share. This fits with my theory that the universe has various similar structures throughout everything including civilization and life. I assure something more technical next post.
Having now discovered that the basic structure of civilization is governed as a core quaternary of components being Power, The human condition, Planetary boundaries and what i now deem as the Communication/union/hive component which creates adaptation and produces transitional evolution of civilization; further categorising is necessary to understand the entire system.
I have now extended the 6P’s to include a 7th which was already embedded into the Sustainability “flower of life”, but incorrectly, since the central core labelled sustainability could also be labelled as the 7th P of Peace. This number of 7 has been discovered in many previous attempts to understanding humanity from various groups of scholars, theologians and philosophers examining faith, religion and spirituality. Here i present how the 7P’s correlate closely to these previous separations of society and the human experience. You can also see how the 7P’s are circular also with philosophy and ethics being tied closely to peace.
The 7 P’s
Subject
7 heavenly virtues
7 Vices
Spiritual New Age
Samurai Bushido way
Philosophy
Ethics, Survival
Temperance
Gluttony
Prudence
Patience, Self-control, Integrity of character
Personal
Psychology
Chastity
Lust
Chastity
Benevolence, Mercy
Public
Social
Diligence
Sloth
Courage
Courage
Private
Economics
Charity
Greed
Love
Honesty, Sincerity
Political
Politics
Gratitude, Admiration
Envy
Hope
Politeness, Respect
Planetary
International relations, Communication, Unions
Patience, Forgiveness
Wrath
Wisdom
Rectitude, Justice
Peace
Sustainability
Humility
Pride
Faith
Honor, Loyalty (to collective)
THE 7 P’S
The Bushido way of the Samurai
The 7P’s in the “Flower of life”
The 7 P’s
The 7 Chakras
Deals with
Blocked by
Philosophy
Root – I Am
Survival, Trust, Security, Creative energy
Fear
Personal
Sacral – I Feel
Pleasure, Sex, Creativity, Absorption, Growth
Guilt
Public
Solar Plexus – I do
Wisdom, Power, Willpower, Inspiration
Shame
Private
Heart – I Love
Sharing, Healing, Equilibrium, Love
Grief
Political
Throat – I Speak
Truth, Communication, Expression, Philosophy
Lies
Planetary
3rd Eye – I See
Awareness, Insight, Perception, Intuition
Illusion
Peace
Crown – I Know
Comprehension, Spirituality
Ego Attachment
Using the quaternary structure of civilization and the 7P’s as bases for categorising and organising the many topics required to understand how a stable, sustainable civilization could be formed, it is possible to create a glossary of terms to describe what this vision might look like. Here i have created a basic alphabetical index of topics and terms needed to do just that:
ANARCHY
BANKS
BIOREGIONS
BUSINESS
CAPITALISM
CARBON SINKS
CLIMATE CHANGE
CIRCULAR ECONOMICS
CITIZENSHIP
CLUB FACTORS
COLLECTIVE RISKS
COMMONS
COMMUNITY
CONSERVATION, RESTORATION, AFFORESTATION
DEBATE AND ARGUMENT
DEEP ECOLOGY
DEMOCRACY
DISTRIBUTISM
DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE
ECOCIDE
ECOLOGY CHANGE
ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMICS
EGOETHICAL DISTRIBUTISM
EMERGENCY MARSHALL PLAN
EMPLOYMENT
ENERGY
ENERGY PROVISION
ENVIRONMENTAL LAW PROTECTION
ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL ECONOMICS
ENVIRONMENTALISM
EXCHANGE AND FINANCE
FAMILY
FINANCIAL REFORM REGULATION
FOOD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
GENDER INEQUALITY AND EQUITY
GLOBAL NETWORKS
GLOBAL AGREEMENTS PARTNERS
GLOBAL CHALLENGES
GLOBAL ENGINEERING
GLOBAL ETHICS
GLOBAL REGULATION
GOVERNMENT SCALE, FUNCTION, MODALITIES
GOV SPENDING AND FINANCING CLIMATE ADAPTATION
GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE TYPES
GOVERNMENT
GROUP DECISION MAKING
HUMAN AND GROUP BEHAVIOUR CHANGE
HUMAN BASIC NEEDS – SOCIAL
HUMAN DESIRABLES – CAPITAL
HUMAN FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS – COMMUNAL
HUMAN COMMUNICATION SELF ORGANISATION HIVE
INCLUSIVITY DISCRIMINATION
INDUSTRY RESTRUCTURING
INFORMATION SHARING GDSS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
INTERNATIONAL UNIONS
LARGE SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
LAW
MENTAL WELLNESS
MONEY
MORAL AGREEMENTS
MULTINATIONAL COALITIONS
NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL STRUCTURE
NGOS AND QUANGOS
ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE
ORGANISED LABOUR
PANARCHY
PHILOSOPHY
PLANETARIAN LOCAVORE
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
POLITICAL ECONOMICS SUMMARIES
POLITICAL ECONOMY
POLITICAL INTEGRAL ECOLOGY
POLITICAL STRUCTURES
POLITICS
POLITICAL THEORY
POPULATION STABILISATION
POWER
PSYCHOLOGY
RELIGION
RENEWABLE ENERGY
RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION
SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION
SOCIETY SOCIAL SCIENCE
SOCIOCULTURAL EVOLUTION
SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH
SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE
SYSTEMS
TAXATION
TEXTILES SUSTAINABLE
THE HUMAN CONDITION
TRADE
TRANSITION ADAPTATION REACTION
TRANSNATIONALITY
TRANSPORT
UNITED NATIONS
WASTE AND RECYCLING
WATER FOOD ENERGY NEXUS
WICKED PROBLEM APPROACHES
WEALTH OWNERSHIP LAND PROPERTY INHERITANCE
I have collected hundreds of terms from each of these subjects and fields which i was unfamiliar with and now i intend to define the lesser widely known and critical terms to describe the Planetarian vision. Briefly it is currently summarised as such:
Planetarian Circular Civilization. In short it is an egoethical neo-distributist multilateral distribution of global federal coalitions.
Definition: A club based egoethical, bioregional, neo-distributist, socioeconomically and geoculturally compatible multilateral distributed cooperative of horizontally integrated, paradiplomatic jurisdictions of mutualistic, interdependent federal coalitions with a steady-state economy (population), nativist identity preserving cosmopolitan flexible transnationality of nations or forming a dual economy of pluralist subnational members of a sovereign state that together form an altruistic collective globalist network able to prevent societal and environmental collapse.
The difficulty in mapping out the structure of civilization comes from the fact that it is such an all encompassing subject involving almost all academic disciplines. Because of this multidisciplinary nature we find ourselves with identical topics which are being separately researched in multiple different fields all from different perspectives and using differing approaches. This is why a tabulated format to list all of the variables in the system of civilization is ineffective because some belong to multiple categories. I have found greater success in displaying this information using a circular ring which allows for the four components of the theorised quaternary system to sit neatly with the wicked 25 problems which themselves are split neatly into the “6 P’s”. The 6 P’s are the spheres of civilization involving philosophical, personal, public, private, political and planetary concerns. I believe this could form the basis of a new academic field which builds on those of sustainability and global systems science which could be titled global civilization science with the slight difference being that the system in question is the entirety of civilization encompassing all the separate subsystems. The images below give a basic demonstration how the 6p’s and the circular civilization model fit together. The 6p’s “flower of civilization”, as i call it, demonstrate how each of these issues neatly blends into the adjacent “P” concern, they belong partly to both of the spheres possesing a broader scope of concern.
The wicked 25 embedded within the 4 broad components of civilization of power, the human condition, human self organisation and planetary boundaries also all embedded within the 6P’s modelThe 6 P’s “flower of life” model showing concerns of civilization which blend to adjacent spheres of concern demonstrating their cross disciplinary nature
Just a brief post, but this will allow me to attempt to form a glossary for the most critical concepts and terminology i require to convey the circular civilization concept of how to restructure the planet for the existing and anticipated conditions on earth. This way i can have a more ordered list of terms which are in the most appropriate category. Some of these terms will be relics of past attempts to explain civilization and others will be existing or proposed ideas to structure society and I think it is important to form a large review of them to see if some elements can be borrowed, altered and reincorporated into a more suitable praxis.
[Disclaimer: This began as a facebook post hence the informal jabbering. I find it fascinating though and thought worth sharing]
When you are just casually planning to save the human race and you find yourself simultaneously deepening your understanding of the fundamental physics theory of the universe.. of course right because it’s a singularity and all knowledge converges and is connected. Might have just discovered why gravity is so weak and poorly understood.. it is perhaps a dual of the neutral polarity (almost everything in life has an opposite dual, but how can you have something opposite to neutral? Answer: something which is a paradox of the most unbalanced states ie. transition/ beginning and end). A neutral force is balanced but gravity is opposite to this because it not only destroys everything eventually but it is also the force of creation and renewal, repeatedly effecting the beginning and ending of the universe. The universe is not a pure triality, it is a quadracity or quaternary, the 4th component being minor but anarchistic, which is why anarchy is essential. These 4 polarities have many names: positive, negative, neutral, “boundary conditions/start+stop/transition”; Need, give, rely, take; Man, woman, child, conception/death; Strong force, weak force, electromagnetic force, gravity, Capitalism, Distributism(socialism), Communism, Anarchism
(hypothetical) Distribution of shared costs of a space in a shared condominium
Social Costs – 60% – Basic amenities in a apartment complex eg. Plumbing, Electrics, Hallways, Private Doors, Insulation, Plaster, Paint
Private Costs – 20% – Desirable amenities for long term private use eg. Fixtures, Lighting, Washing facilities, Windows, Refrigeration, Cooker, Carpets or Flooring, Crockery and cutlery
Communal Costs – 15% – Fundamental components of the complex such as the building itself eg. Land, Foundations, Bricks, Roof, Floors, Adequate space to sleep in, Door, Sanitation services
Personal/Voluntary Costs – 5% – Extraneous amenities that may change overtime eg. Tech, Material goods, Furniture, Redecoration
Tripartite theory of anarchy as international relations structure
Distribution of capabilities (surface structure)
Functional differentiation of units
Unit arrangement: Ordering principle
Anarchy/Adaptation (Deep structure)
Human collectives by scale
Communities (Towns, villages, hamlets – rural)
Cities
Countries or sovereign states
International Unions
Governance scales, function and modalities
Grassroots movements supply Basic needs of the system to persist (reproduction, population)
Middle Management carries out large scale operation and development
Top-Down governance ensures fundamental needs are met
Central Authorities -Delivers expert coordinating policy guidance/Experimental research – Drives transformation and new ways of operating the system – Coordinates communication between all levels at each scale
Human psychology states
Neurotypical
Neurotic
Empathetic
Sadistic/sociopathic OR OCD/Aspergers
Human actions
Towards
Away
For
Against
Human governance
Executive
Judiciary
Legislative
Evolution: Autocracy and Fascism/Revolution or Expert Citizen democracy – Hive mind – Multilateral unions of governance structures – Communication
The 7P’s of concern
Political, Private and Public
Private
Philosophical and Personal
Peace, Planetary and Political
Primary academic disciplines of importance
Politics
Economics
Law
Sustainability: Sustainable International Governance (Global Civilization Science) Communication
4 Centres of power
Political
Monetary
Intellectual
Ecclesiastical – Faith based principles and cohesion
Sapience
Intelligence
Wisdom
Automatic Thinking
Creativity
Psychology thought, emotion, action cycle
Thought
Emotion
Decision
Action
Parsons action theory forming the human condition paradigm and the social system
Secondary (Accrue International development fund to act internationally to prevent planetary disaster)
Tertiary (Increase legislative [communal] budget)
Quaternary (Remaining 5% of budget to fund experts and knowledgeable citizens to use anonymous deliberation in strategy forming using online network group decision support systems to devise transformational adaptations and novel societal systems to rescue humanity). Multilateral unions. Communication
Civilization core components
Power
Human condition
Planetary Boundaries
Societal and/or environmental Collapse vs Cohesion: Communication/Unions/Human self organization/revolution/ Hive mind collective conciousness
The quaternary structure of the universe and civilization
This was just a quickly thrown together summary of an interesting facet of my foundational research. It is not to be used to draw parallels of all of the quaternary descriptors but is useful to demonstrate more proportions of power or existence of such levels in our systems of the universe and civilization. It is very rough and could not be considered some sort of theory of everything for civilization, i think it would be alot more complex than this and contain 3 dimensional connections of various components such as i have attempted to show in the planetarian framework using polyhedral graphing techniques.
My next piece is about a distributive network between those nations, states and cities which have the greatest impact to damage and or heal the planet. I am currently reviewing thomas pikettys work but i have found some excellent research on distributive justice that im working my way through.
[Disclaimer: Again this is a very roughly written set of notes, here I am going to say some things which most people would be uncomfortable saying because even scientists fear reprisal, rejection and unpopularity by the masses. I want this species to succeed and survive and to do that I believe that you must act boldly and swiftly. Just in the same way that with a virus infection, the earlier you administer the medication the more effective the treatment is because viral replication is exponential and climate change is appearing to develop exponentially also. So you have to hit it hard and quick to have the best chances of regaining control. You are making decisions here that have the most critical of consequences which are those of the safety and wellbeing of yourselves and your families. I have faith that you will respond with enough vigour because the last year or so has shown a great human passion which im sure can be channelled into this emergency. Your health is the most important thing in life, take it from me, someone who learnt this lesson too late, everything else comes secondary to your health]
A major problem with our societies is that we tend to exist in a singular mode all year round with minor adjustments to account for the changing of the seasons. We could instead reform our structures, practices and habits into a multi moded system that can switch between different modes of using energy or working or eating according to the natural cycles of weather and climate. This becomes again a closer enmeshing of our lives with the natural world, to work with it and not be so rigid in our insistence upon continuing with the same behaviours despite changing conditions.
These proposals would be in addition to the ‘wicked 25’ I proposed in the circular civilization set of rough notes. Some of the ideas are repeated here but I may expand on some and introduce new ideas also. It should be noted that any of these proposals would likely be revealed to the public far ahead of their potential implementation so everyone has time to prepare and adapt to any changes. Hashing out the details of such large scale changes let alone the building of such infrastructure would likely take several years, even on the fastest of timescales.
The fastest way to move towards safety is to reduce global energy usage, particularly that of developed western nations. This a 30-40 year strategy until we can generate power by nuclear fusion which could power much of our energy desires cleanly.
Move people seasonally – build fleets of electric coaches and build electric charging stations across transcontinental highways. Minimalist nomads paid for their service in reducing the burden on electric and energy grids during winter and water supplies during summer.
Supply fossil fuel generated power intermittently – For example during summer, coal power stations could supply electricity to homes between the hours of 6am -10am and then again between 4pm to 8pm (16 hours saved without supply). Then in winter time extend hours to say 6am-11am and then 2pm to 9pm (12 hours saved without supply). Times would depend on climate conditions of the region.
So in the morning you may want to use the electricity to make hot water to shower with and maybe handwash or machine wash the previous day’s clothes. To cook a breakfast/lunch and to charge up any electric battery powered goods such as laptops and phones.
The gaps in supply could be filled if the housing is supplied by renewable energy created electricity either from a power station or onsite domestically with solar and photovoltaic panels or wind generated.
If the house has neither power station or domestic connection to renewably sourced electricity, this would create a huge incentive for those with cash and assets to personally invest in such technology. There could perhaps be a case for people being able to trade in petrochemical motor vehicles in exchange for solar panels or domestic wind turbines. These vehicles taken off the road could be recycled or the most suitable and desirable, retrofitted to become electric powered cars.
3. The desire for a constant supply of electricity is perhaps most acutely apparent in people’s reliance on frozen and refrigerated foods. Without a constant supply people could not guarantee the freshness and edibility of foods. It is not likely that the world could afford the greenhouse gas emissions associated with providing renewable energy sources for all housing across the world let alone single western continents such as north America or Europe. The greenhouse gas budget available to avoid the worst consequences of climate change (CC) is probably not large enough to accommodate that demand.
But it is entirely possible to adapt our lifestyle to do without home fridges and freezers without having to revert to Victorian era food storage and consumption habits. There is a case for reducing the production of new refrigerant based goods as the leakage of current refrigerants is a potent CC agent as a greenhouse gas (GHG). Refrigerant management is touted as the number one method to combat CC.
4. If instead we moved to a more centralised production and distribution of foods and meals in the way of local food kitchens and food halls where they could store large amounts of refrigerated and frozen foods. These food halls would require a constant energy supply from renewable, fossil fuel or nuclear power sources. You could still purchase meat and dairy goods but you would be likely to be eating them on the same day of purchase. The movement of people from their homes to food halls, especially during periods when there is no fossil fuel generated electricity provided at home, would change seasonally. Perhaps during summer times more people would want to leave home and travel to food halls whereas in winter time some may choose to stay at home. Conversely people might not feel the need during summer time to visit the food hall as it is warm at home and they have the food they need or during winter people will visit the food hall for warmth also. Depending on weather conditions and regional preferences these systems can be ramped up and down throughout the year.
The foods cooked and provided here could be more plant based as plant food cooking experts could use their food experience to prepare tasty and healthy meals with lower amounts of animal products. This is good for the environment and good for peoples health and therefore puts less strain on healthcare providers. These meals could also be delivered locally using electric powered vans or even more ecofriendly is the bicycle delivery such as that by companies like Deliveroo. Bicycles would become a big industry in the future as they are good for physical and mental health and require no fuels to power. Taxis should ideally be electric powered or at least hybrid and these are a useful public car share. People should adapt to living without a car and traveling less or using bikes or public transport. Have food delivered from supermarkets and visit food halls often to reduce the amount of food needed to be stored at home. The centralised cooking of large batches of foods will be more energy efficient and will also allow better food stock management which will reduce food wastage. Supermarkets and food kitchens would work closely to ensure as little food is wasted as possible.
A Small modular nuclear reactor
5. Coming back to the energy supplied to homes and cities. There is a case here, in this current emergency situation, that small modular nuclear reactors could be very useful to power our essential energy needs and emitting the least amount of GHGs. Small modular nuclear reactors are much smaller than nuclear power stations and therefore are much faster to install and offer a potentially better safety profile (search youtube for small modular nuclear reactors for the facts). These could be used singularly or in multiples to power essential services that require constant energy supply such as hospitals, food halls and food kitchens, supermarkets, water supply companies etc. Perhaps, I would map out which regions and cities are least likely to be affected by CC such as from sea level rise, drought, flooding and hurricanes (assume the worst that all ice covering the land will melt causing 75 metres of sea level rise). Then deploy the reactors in regions strategically to help cover the baseline energy needs of a city or town. Whilst nuclear energy is a last resort and much maligned option, I believe humanity needs all the help it can get right now.
6. Working from home and reducing average lifetime working hours from 40 hours per week to 20 per week. Essential workers should hope to live nearby to workplaces to reduce personal commutes and essential sectors could supply electric powered minibuses to pickup and drop off workers at their homes.
7. Minimalism. Transform people’s concept of materialism to one which does not need to transport heavy home goods from place to place each time a person moves home. The cost to move large goods may become exorbitantly expensive or people may be encouraged to leave furniture behind for future tenants to use as moving vans require more fuel to move goods and the new production of furniture goods would be greatly decreased in the future as we move toward necessary industrial production only.
The existing global economy is a convoluted system of multiple currencies, massive national debts, a pricing and value system that doesn’t reflect the true-cost to the environment and the materialistic, capitalist ideals sold to us via credit and debt usury. A very tricky element of the economy to untangle will be the ownership of land and property and the inheritance of such wealth to others. But we will leave that for now with the hope of finding answers in texts such as Thomas Piketty’s Capital and Ideology. But we should aim to not only transform the economic system to one which is beneficial for the planet but do so in such a way that it creates leverage and incentive for those with wealth to invest in the new green economic system to hurry it’s development along. A very simple way to do this would be to collectively decide as a planet to introduce a new currency such as the ecounit which will be used to pay the true environmental cost for goods and to implement a fixed deflation rate on all existing currencies which are inexchangeable for the new ecounit. The only way to receive the new currency is to earn wages for an essential industry or service sector or to invest your existing wealth in the old currencies into all of the international strategies proposed to preserve the environment. This would mean that those with large sums of wealth could still maintain this wealth if they divest from their existing investments and put their cash into projects which support the green development of social and energy infrastructures. They would then receive a profit from these investments in the form of the ecounits and as a result would still be relatively wealthy compared to the working class in society which I think is an important desirable requirement for those with wealth in any future plans. Because there would be a fixed deflation rate on their existing cash to be introduced on a predetermined date this would give time for those with wealth to sign onto many of the new ecounit approved schemes that would develop our societies into sustainable communities that are prepared to undertake radical transformation to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Once the deflation rate is initiated this would apply more pressure on those with wealth to preserve such wealth before their cash becomes worthless over a time frame of say 3-5 years. This mass collection of wealth from the richest would form the necessary funds to bankroll all the projects required to save the planet and humankind. The very action of increasing the development of green energies and behaviours which lower energy usage should be rewarded nationally as write off’s to national debts. The huge national debts are perhaps direct reflections of the material consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a nation and so previous, existing and future efforts towards sustainable practices should be factored into writing down those debts. Many developed nations have the largest share of national debts and it is these nations which have the sufficient wealth and infrastructure to create sustainable change which would also mean they could lower their national debts faster if their actions towards global environmental protection are rewarded in this manner.
Understanding the transition from existing currencies to the new ecounit is perhaps beyond my expertise but i envision a blended period of dual currency usage where wages for essential and green services would be switched to ecounit payments and at a later date payment for goods and services at small retailers using old currencies would have been phased out. The profits of existing companies would continue to be paid in the old currency unless they had been certified as green companies and ecounit approved. This would mean that companies using unsustainable practices would have to alter their product to conform to sustainable standards or face diminishing profits once the deflation rate kicks in as the money earned would be worth less and less every day. Perhaps the deflation rate would be calculated on the currency every day but only applied once a month or every 6 months, allowing investors time to carefully divest their existing wealth and reduce panic.
The idea of a cashless society has it’s dangers but the creation of coin and notes as currency in enough bulk to supply an entire planet’s worth of humans comes with a very high energy and materials expense. Perhaps we would have a personal cash card and a secondary impersonal saving card like a top up card as a safety measure to protect from fraud, damage, loss and card blocks. Again, this is another huge topic to discuss beyond my existing knowledge and research. But they are valid questions to ask as we must be very economical in our endeavour to transition now because literally everything is at stake.
The ideas of transnationality and bioregionalism require a deeper investigation and i hope to in the coming months find solutions regarding what i believe to be a critical component of a global rescue strategy for humanity. But the best part of many of these proposed solutions is the dynamism they introduce to the system and new degrees of freedom for variability and change. This is room for manoeuvre, whereas our existing system is rigid, linear and we have become stuck. But also with each intervention you should hope to not only solve problems but create incentives which motivate further actions towards resolution, the two birds one stone strategy.
One thing i have left undiscussed is the idea of overpopulation and birth rate stabilisation. This should be left till last as you first need to understand how peoples will be organised and what their lives will be like before being able to understand how to intervene in managing birth rates. Lowering energy usage across the board is a priority since this would mean any children born into this arrangement of civilization would have less environmental impact than previous generations. But it does also form a necessary requirement to manage competition between nations and as a long term overall energy and materials burden on the planet. The main standouts of this piece were to introduce the controversial elements of intermittent fossil fuel supply and small modular nuclear reactors as drastic measures to fix the planet if the emergency was deemed serious enough or climate events take a sudden turn for the worse to alarm us to act quickly.
The Planetarian mode of civilization allows sustainability 